Investment management company Bitwise Asset Management has released its predictions for Bitcoin (BTC) and the crypto sector in 2026.
Although Bitcoin has historically followed a four-year cycle, which suggests a period of decline, the company claims that current trends in institutional adoption and regulatory clarity are: They cannot be contained because they are “too strong”.
Matt Hogan, the firm’s chief investment officer, said: The market is entering a mature stage It will challenge previous patterns.
Below are Bitwise Asset Management’s 10 predictions for the Bitcoin ecosystem in 2026.
1. End of 4-year cycle and new high price
Bitcoin has traditionally operated in cycles associated with halvings, with three years of appreciation followed by one year of sharp decline. Following that logic, next year should be bearish.
This configuration is best illustrated in the following graph. This shows the price of Bitcoin and the halving that has already been developed.
However, Bitwise predicts: 2026 will be the year when this common sense will be broken. The company claims that “the forces that previously drove the four-year cycle are significantly weaker than in the past.”
In this regard, they note, “We hope that a combination of these factors will propel Bitcoin to new all-time highs, relegating the four-year cycle to the dustbin of history.”
2. Bitcoin exhibits lower volatility than Nvidia
One of the recurring criticisms of Bitcoin is its volatility. However, Bitwise predicts that “Bitcoin will experience less volatility than Nvidia, one of the most popular stocks on the market.”
This phenomenon is react to maturation process. They see this change as reflecting a fundamental reduction in the risk of Bitcoin as an investment and the diversification of the investor base thanks to traditional investment vehicles such as ETFs.
3. ETFs absorb more than all new supply
“As institutional demand accelerates, ETFs will purchase over 100% of the new supply of Bitcoin, Ether (ETH), and Solana (SOL),” Bitwise predicts.
and Approximately 166,000 BTC is scheduled to be issued The company emphasizes that by 2026, “2026 will be the first year that most institutional investors will have access to digital asset ETFs.” The company says this will create “significant purchasing pressure.”
4. Advantages of Bitcoin/virtual currency related stocks
A Bitwise report predicts that companies in the crypto sector will outperform the Nasdaq 100 in 2026.
With regulatory clarity in Washington, Bitwise says this will “lead to new products, additional revenue streams, and M&A activity.”
“Digital asset stocks are going to do very well in 2026 and Wall Street will be on the defensive,” according to analysts at the investment management firm.
5. Polymarket and Post-Election Open Interest Records
Unlike those who believe that prediction markets rely exclusively on presidential elections, Bitwise expects Polymarket to surpass its 2024 record next year.
The key lies in its expansion. This is a reminder that the platform started rolling out to US users in early December 2025.
It also highlights that the company “recently secured a $2 billion investment from Intercontinental Exchange (parent company of the New York Stock Exchange).” Bitwise has indicated that they will use the funds to expand their business and expand into new markets.
6. Emerging currency crisis and the role of stablecoins
Stablecoins such as USD Tether (USDT) and USD Coin (USDC) are reaching system scale with market caps exceeding $300 billion.
In this sense, Bitwise predicts that “stablecoins will be blamed for destabilizing emerging market currencies.”
Bitwise explains that in countries with high inflation rates like Venezuela, these tools “make it easy to save money in the relatively stable U.S. dollar instead of the local currency.” What a central bank interprets as a threat to “monetary sovereignty.”
In fact, it is claimed by the International Monetary Fund (IMF). In a report published on December 4, the organization recognized that stablecoins have the potential to take space from national currencies. Especially those who are in financial difficulty, as CriptoNoticias reported.
7. Investment funds as the new ETF 2.0
On-chain investment vaults gain media relevance. Bitwise believes that “a new wave of high-quality curators will enter the market in 2026, attracting billions of dollars in capital.”
Furthermore, they predict that “one of the major economic publications, Bloomberg, Wall Street Journal, or Financial Times, will refer to these vaults as ‘ETF 2.0.'”
8. Maximum value of ETH and SOL under the protection of CLARITY law
They are bullish on Ethereum (ETH) and Solana (SOL) because of megatrends such as tokenization, but success depends on the law.
“We believe that if passed, the CLARITY Act will spark a ‘face-melting’ bull market,” the report states.
The law would provide clear guidance on whether regulation falls under the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) or the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). Thus, the uncertainty that hinders large-scale capital is eliminated.
According to Bitwise, the following chart shows the potential gains for ETH and SOL after the CLARITY Act is enacted.
9. The “Harvard Effect” will benefit Bitcoin
Adoption by university foundations is key to the growth of Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies.
Bitwise emphasizes that these foundations are “trend leaders” and that large-scale entry into the digital asset market could attract “pension funds, insurance funds and other institutions” to the table.
10. Explosion of new financial products
Finally, managers want the market to be flooded with new investment options.
Following the publication of general listing standards by the SEC in 2025, Bitwise predicts that “more than 100 ETFs linked to digital assets will be launched.”
And these will be of different types, Bitwise says. This means there will be crypto spot ETFs, staking ETFs, sector stock ETFs, and index ETFs.
structural change
As the ecosystem heads toward 2026, the industry narrative will undergo a tectonic shift. The possibility of Bitcoin’s four-year cycle breaking down is not just due to changes in the market cycle; However, it reflects deep integration in the global macroeconomy.
However, this growth depends on important external factors such as the legal framework of large countries.
Ultimately, if these predictions come true, 2026 will be the year that Bitcoin technology becomes widespread. It is a fundamental pillar of modern financial infrastructure.