According to a research note from Matt Mena, Crypto Research strategist at 21Shares, US employment data in June exceeded forecasts, setting the background for macros that allow Bitcoin (BTC) to be sent over $200,000.
The Labor Bureau reported that non-farm payroll increased by 147,000 in June, surpassing the consensus estimate of 110,000, while unemployment rate fell from 4.2% to 4.1%. Furthermore, it fell below an estimated 4.3%.
Mena writes that the numbers show “labor market strength without overheating,” a mix that supports the slower story of the Federal Reserve.
The futures rate associated with federal funds fully priced the 25 base cuts at its policy meeting in September, with the CME FedWatch tool assigned a roughly 75% chance to the outcome.
At 2.4% headline inflation tracking, MENA argues that the Fed has “room for action” to primarily accumulate political pressure. The pressure comes mainly from President Donald Trump’s letter, prompting him to return to the 1% terminal rate.
Liquidity Channels and Market Response
Rate cut expectations are filtered into risk assets. MENA says S&P 500 futures can “flap at their all-time highs” at nearly 6,300, while Bitcoin will trade between $108,000 and $110,000 on July 3, and “waiting for the catalyst.”
As of press time, BTC price was $109,518.14, an increase of nearly 1% over the past 24 hours.
Mena said the share of Bitcoin’s total crypto market value fell to 62%, and recently fell by 3%. He considers this to be an early sign of capital that spins into Altcoins.
He says it will combine a shift towards a greater liquidity outlook, along with the advances in the Market Structure Bill and the Congressional Act, along with its advancement in the market structure bill and genius law, to help reduce regulatory uncertainty and expand institutional participation.
Pass to $200,000
MENA connected the data chain in a broader context that could drive Bitcoin towards a $200,000 threshold. He said stable but non-inflammable employment growth paves the way for Fed easing, lower policy rates and release of liquidity.
Historically, the fresh capital has been allocated first to Bitcoin and then to altcoin. In that sequence, he writes, “the runway is formed.”
Strategists consider the $200,000 mark, not a cycle peak, as a “decisive breakout level,” adding that altcoins could outperform once Bitcoin establishes a new range.