Bitcoin (BTC) is over $100,000psychological barriers that have not been reached for more than two months.
This week’s impulse is explained by a combination of factors rather than a single cause. Jerome Powell, the vague discourse of the Federal Reserve president, did not provide a definition of interest rates (though he didn’t close the door this year to cut). Signing a commercial agreement between the United States and the UK. And hopes for possible progress in negotiations between the US and China scheduled for this weekend.
In the following graph provided by the TrainingView platform, Bitcoin has been moving since January 1, 2025. At the time of this publication, digital currency has reached historic maximums, possibly looking for new heights.
Everything seems to indicate that the market is expecting something big. If the conversation between the US and China achieves a preliminary agreement to take away the “custom war”; Bitcoin could be triggered in an area close to $110,000 (You’ll probably find strong resistance). In fact, it is precisely this commercial “war” that has been stagnating in recent months.
On Wednesday, Fed President Jerome Powell offered a press conference that repeated mantras of recent months.
There were no interest rate cuts, but there was no more positive attitude than cooling the market. In a context where discourse stiffening is feared due to the latest inflation data, The Fed’s passivity was interpreted as a positive signal by investors.
The market did not find enthusiasm for what Powell said, but he didn’t realize what he didn’t say. The absence of threats allows for confidence in assets that are considered to be revitalized by “risk.”
In that context, Bitcoin, which serves as a barometer in front of our monetary policy since 2020, answers with a strong rise and quotes over $100,000.
In communicating with Cryptootics, Denise Cinelli and the COO of Exchange Cryptomkt commented:
The rebound comes after the Federal Reserve decision to maintain unchanged fees and predict the likelihood of decline towards the second semester. The market interprets this signal as a shift towards more flexible monetary policy, promoting global liquidity and supporting risky assets such as Bitcoin.
Denise Cinelli, Coode Cryptomkt.
The next day, as Cryptootics reported, the President of the United States, Donald Trump has announced a “historic commercial agreement” with the UK.
The agreement means opening a new market for US products and increasing US tariff revenues.
Meanwhile, the UK will have an average import rate falling from 5.1% to 1.8%, while the US will raise tariffs on UK products from 3.4% to 10%.
The market responded positively to the announcement, but the most relevant thing was Trump’s suggestion. If the conversation with China moves forward, they could reach an agreement. And, so, yes, I will change the whole panorama.
This Saturday, the expected trade negotiations between the US and China begin in Geneva. Treasury Secretary Scott Beschent and commercial representative Jamieson Greer will be present in the United States. China will be represented by Deputy Prime Minister HE Lifeng.
According to Bloomberg, the Trump administration is considering a major cut in tariffs, with some Chinese imports now reaching up to 145%. The aim is to reduce that percentage to less than 60% as the first step, and sources close to Beijing say Beijing might match that scale.
While conversations are expected to be exploratory in principle, the immediate solution focuses on the mere fact that the mere fact that the parties are feeling the dialogue is already interpreted by the market as a sign of relaxation.
says Scott Kennedy, Chinese economy expert at Wahington Strategic and International Studies Center.
«The US and China need to find ways to coexist or cut off. This will have great consequences for the global economy and the world order. Therefore, the importance of these negotiations cannot be overestimated. ”
Scott Kennedy, an expert on the Chinese economy.
Some agreement on global trade has been achieved, and whether limited or limited, the mass of capital that is prudent today could increase and be released.
Bitcoin is an asset that is generally considered “risk.” But there is a certain logic to it. In times of geopolitical or financial uncertainty, it could serve as a shelter. It also shows that when fear returns, capital flows are directed towards more speculative investments than usual, and therefore responds very positively when global tensions drop.
Over the past two months, tariffs between the US and China have created a wave of risk aversion that affects all kinds of assets, including BTC. Uncertainties about import costs, consumer prices and global economic growth have encouraged many investors to adopt a more conservative position.
Bitcoin can benefit in several ways if an inflation gesture is specified this weekend:
- Improved liquidity for risky assets.
- Reducing inflation fear in the US.
- Stimulation of international trade and therefore global economic growth.
- Enhanced recognition of Bitcoin as a shelter in an era of structural change.
And beyond the macroeconomic environment, Bitcoin has its own reasons to maintain an upward trend. Half of April 2024 reduced new BTC broadcasts in half, and if the previous cycle patterns were repeated, there is still a long stage of gratitude.
This adds growing institutional adoption. Companies continue to accumulate BTC, and their interest in Bitcoin ETFs with cash is solid. The story of Bitcoin as a reserve for manipulation of finite, transparent, and resistant digital values continues to gain strength.
Again, the price is $100,000, and under 10% of its past maximum (registered in January 2025, approximately $109,300), The scenario is provided for possible breaks.
But it all depends heavily on what happens in Geneva this weekend. If the world’s two biggest economies can reduce even some of the tariff tensions that have been shaking markets since April, then Bitcoin can use envy to reach its historic largest zone.
In a dialogue with Cryptonoticia, Iván Paz Chain, director of Trading Different, explained that “in the long term, liquidity continues to rise above $110,000, making it more likely that you will see a new historic maximum for Bitcoin.”
For all of this, This weekend will be key and decisive. The world is looking for it. Cryptootics reports and explains what happens.