Bitcoin rise is supported by facility influx and macro tails over $10,000 – Bitfinex

Despite Bitcoin (BTC) down 2.5% in the last 24 hours, trading nearly $101,600, causing a close to $200 million in the liquidation of open long positions, the latest “Bitfinex Alpha” report highlighted that on-chain metrics remain constructive.

The current price measure is just 3.6% below the all-time high of $109,590, following the Bitcoin Rally’s recent move to $105,660 from its near-$74,000 low.

Bitcoin remains in the six-figure territory despite a minor pullback on May 12th. At the time of reporting, BTC was trading at $102,606, a 1.53% decrease in the last 24 hours, based on crypto surat data.

With the recovery, BTC has surpassed the $100,000 threshold for the first time in more than three months, reflecting a broader shift in macro sentiment, including a re-rick of risk assets following the Federal Reserve policy meeting in May.

The report noted that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting introduced options without causing market anxiety.

The Fed had not changed interest rates, but Chairman Jerome Powell has acknowledged signs that slowed economic activity and eased consumer demand, opening the door to a more balanced approach to future interest rate decisions.

At the same time, emissions tariff tensions between the US and China reduced the risk of geopolitical tails. These terms have supported new momentum in assets such as Bitcoin, which have shown resilience over stocks in recent weeks.

Stronger realization cap and softer unrealized losses

This change in macropositioning has contributed to reconciliation of capital allocation across the crypto sector.

The Bitcoin realization cap, a measure of the total cost-based measure of coins in circulation, reached a record $889 billion this week, suggesting a net inflow into the network and increased investor convictions.

Over the past 30 days, the realised cap has increased by 2.1%, indicating new capital support for recent profits rather than speculative churn or leverage-based transactions.

Another important on-chain development is the reduction in the amount of BTC held in unrealized losses. At the bottom of the March and April revisions, 5 million btc was underwater, about 25% of the active supply.

This week, that figure fell to around 700,000 BTC, or less than 3% of active supply, suggesting a shift to a profit-dominated market structure. This type of supply transition has historically supported a higher price base and greater depth of demand.

The return agency

The report noted that institutional action continues to intensify these structural changes. This highlighted the record of Spot Bitcoin Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs), which recorded net inflows of over $920 million over the past two weeks.

BlackRock’s IBIT contributed more than half of the total. US trading hours concentrated these flows, with approximately 70% to 80% of activity occurring from 10am to 4pm.

The report argued that this was evidence of a systematic allocation strategy rather than discretionary trading behavior, particularly given the modest volatility and the steadily climbing spot volume.

Furthermore, ETF flows appear to be increasingly uncorrelated with short-term price volatility. This decoupling is combined with strong net influx and continuous macro readjustment, contributing to the stability of the overall Bitcoin market despite the latest retracements.

Flow patterns and price resilience suggest that institutional demand acts as a support level, softens drawdowns and provides a floor for BTC ratings. The US Treasury market movements further support risk-on tilt.

The 10-year yield fell by 9 basis points per week, with the US Dollar Index (DXY) below 104.50. Furthermore, as inferred from the 5Y5Y swap, inflation expectations remain fixed and match the favorable liquidity conditions of digital assets.

If macrotail winding persists, the current price level of Bitcoin could be a consolidated basis for further accumulation.

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