Bitcoin jumped briefly to $106,300 early Tuesday, pushing it back at a $106,000 threshold, extending a pattern of rejection that shyly refusals at its January record high.
This level thwarted all progress in 2025, turning the round figure into an increasingly psychological barrier for the bull.
The latest tests from this weekend arrived after Moody’s reduced the US sovereignty rating to AA1. The downgrade caused a short bid on so-called hard asset hedges, lifting Bitcoin by almost 2% before momentum halted.
The Senate also voted Monday evening to the Senate, a stable coin bill that Baron described as a comprehensive US digital asset rule milestone. Bitcoin appears to have responded positively to the news.
Market sentiment
Over the past week, Crypto Spot Exchange-Traded Funds has absorbed a net inflow of $7.5 billion. BlackRock’s IBIT vehicles alone emphasized a structural bid that controlled 633,212.00 BTC, equivalent to 3% of total supply, and supported 42% for the year when assets were 42%.
“To unlock a clean run at a fresh high, Edul Patel said “a day closure of more than $107,500 is needed. He pegged his initial support of nearly $102,750, where the 50-day moving average converged with Monday’s opening price. “Another failure will lead to a quick trip to the psychological $100,000 handle,” Patel told the Economic Times.
The macro signals remain mixed. Consumer price inflation in March cooled to 2.3%, the softest printing since 2024, but the Treasury yield continues to rise as the financial price this year is under two. Reuters noted that real yields above 2% have historically diluted enthusiasm for risk-on trading, even if downgraded drama revives Bitcoin’s worthy pitch.
Bitcoin’s response to Moody’s headlines and advances in the genius stubcoin bill have strengthened its role along with stubcoin as a macro hedge when traditional finance wobbles. Still, analysts warn that the correlation with NASDAQ remains intermittent. The high-tech benchmark is up 18% per year, and Bitcoin’s safe story is far from a solution.
Volatility currently near the all-time lows could accelerate to the option expiration date on May 30th. This option opens strikes of $110,000 and $115,000.
The Hawkish tilt in the minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee on Wednesday, or a new delay in the next phase of the Genius Bill could put pressure on the latest bounce. A critical near range above $107,500 is likely to force options writers to hedge, potentially driving price discoveries towards its January peak of $109,224.
JPMorgan’s decision to add Bitcoin directly to the “Trad-Fi Doors Opening” story provides a reminder that institutional demand could outweigh knee-jerk sales.
Whether that bid has proven strong enough to turn a $106,000 wall into a floor may be decided in the next 48 hours of macro news.