ETH continues to consolidate about $2,800 under major resistance levels and struggles with higher intrusions after a strong rally in early May.
The Bulls hold higher lows in the short term, but repeated rejections from the same level raise questions about buyers’ convictions at these highs.
Technical Analysis
Daily Charts
Currently, Ethereum has consolidated its major resistance at $2,800, consistent with its 200-day moving average. The uptrend, which began at nearly $1,500, has paused, reflecting a slight drop in RSI below 70, reflecting a weaker bullish momentum.
Nonetheless, prices exceed the 100-day MA and previous breakout zone of nearly $2,200. A clean breakout of over $2,800 paves the way to a supply zone of between $3,400 and $3,600. Otherwise, it could trigger a retest of a $2,200 demand block.
4-hour chart
The 4H chart shows that the price formed a clear rising triangle between a $2,800 resistance and a support of about $2,500. This structure resembles a potential distribution stage, following two strong accumulation zones below $1,850 earlier this month. ETH continues to set higher lows, but repeated rejections at highs are beginning to weigh short-term outlook.
The RSI also hovered near 47, suggesting a neutral momentum shift. The breaks below $2,500 and the pattern’s lower boundary show a bearish reversal to $2,100, while a confirmed breakout of more than $2,800 negates the idea of distribution and supports a growing upward trend.
Emotional analysis
The Coinbase Premium Index is currently just above zero, indicating moderate spot demand from US-based investors. Historically, rising premiums have preceded a strong bullish trend driven by Coinbase’s institutional or massive retail buyers. Although the current level is not aggressively high, it reflects the fundamental strength of the spot market and its willingness to pay slightly against ETH on US exchanges.
As this premium begins to expand while ETH is approaching resistance again, it could show the forefront of updated confidence and breakouts. On the other hand, if premiums fade or become negative, it could indicate a decline in interest and potential for short-term tops.
Therefore, if demand from the US drops, it is likely that ETH will enter the revision phase again. 
