Bitcoin looks at the second half of 2025 with a clear target. Large companies are already starting to stack more crypto on their balance sheets, but Capitol Hill is approaching passing long-term laws, according to CNBC.
Prices rose about 30% in the second quarter, despite most traders calling it the integration phase. reason? Monthly returns faded, and the coin moved little from its close range for most of the quarter. But that didn’t stop him from gaining 15% gain on H1, even if he was weaker than the 45% jump in the same period last year.
Still, since May 9th, Bitcoin’s staying power has exceeded $100,000. The coin traded on Sunday for $108,000. Coingecko data.
Devin Ryan, who heads citizens’ financial technology research, said, “There’s still an acceleration coming here around ETF adoption… there’s more money coming to them.” Ryan said people are moving towards some ownership from having nothing yet, adding that the old walls around Bitcoin access have disappeared. “We are nearing the end of integration,” he said. “The road is higher from here.”
Public companies are set to be a massive Bitcoin influx
A group of companies now known as Bitcoin Finance Companies is pushing that push. These are public companies that already have or plan to hold Bitcoin as their main asset.
Some of them, including Nakamoto, Twenty One, and effort asset management, have gone through mergers with other listed companies, providing capital and raising capital by using it to buy Bitcoin.
Nakamoto’s Vice President of Investor Relations, Stephen Lubuka, told CNBC that much of its capital has yet to touch the market. “They are waiting for SEC approval for the merger, so they’re coming, so they’re trying to buy Bitcoin, but they’re not buying them now,” says Lubka. “We haven’t seen the complete impact of just the money that is already lined up yet.”
Lubka said that he is not the only driver currently recruiting. The wider macro setup is also bullish. He pointed to the White House under Donald Trump, who appears to support the crypto.
“The maturation of Bitcoin as an asset class intersects with a vast amount of capital through new financialized vehicles,” Lubka said, referring to the finance company. “You’ll see a lot of fiscal spending, and you also have an administration that is pro-bitcoin,” he added. “These four factors intersect each other to create a clean, material bull market.”
Law and Fed Drama adds fuel to surges in the third quarter
Bitcoin’s next leg was helped by Washington. Geoff Kendrick, global head of digital asset research at Standard Chartered, said political landscapes could play a major role in the third quarter.
If President Trump replaces Jerome Powell with the Fed chair, the market could start betting on previous interest rate cuts, which could boost investors’ confidence in central bank independence.
Kendrick also flags potential laws. The Genius Law Stubcoin bill is moving forward through Congress. He believes it could pass in the third quarter and cause a massive amount of new retail demand. “We can encourage more retail investors to make their first investment in Crypto. Bitcoin is the main beneficiary,” Kendrick wrote in a research note last week.
But not everyone is completely calm. Kendrick said prices could get troubling around late September due to the fears that have been linked to the four-year cycle of Bitcoin. In that cycle, the coins are usually dumped halfway around 18 months later when the speed of the new supply is reduced.
The last half happens in April 2024, placing its potential correction window directly on H2. Still, Kendrick hasn’t retarded his predictions. He believes current demand, especially from ETFs and treasury companies, is sufficient to raise prices, even if some long-term holders start to unload.
“What’s important this time is whether the ETF and Bitcoin Treasury flow is sufficient to offset other sales by long-term holders,” Kendrick said. “We think they will.”
Kendrick’s estimates allow Bitcoin to rise to $135,000 by the end of the third quarter and could then close at $200,000. He hopes that once investors stop worrying about repeating another cycle, the code will continue to rise. “We expect Bitcoin will continue to rise to Q4’s ending once market concerns are over,” he writes.