Bitcoin is currently trading around $119,000 after hitting a new all-time high of over $123,000 a few days ago. This historic breakout has a positive momentum and reflects previous levels of resistance in strong support.
The overall structure remains bullish, but recent price actions show early signs of potential short-term fatigue.
Shayan Market
Daily Charts
On the daily charts, BTC erupted from the formation of the large bull flag, which had been developed for several weeks, honoring the macro bull channel. This continuation pattern came after a steep 75k rally from the lows in April, followed by a clean breakout above the 108K resistance zone.
Once BTC cleared that level, momentum accelerated rapidly, pushing the 114k resistance level and tapping $123K to form an all-time high. The bullish structure remains intact, with higher and higher lows clearly formed.
The BTC is currently sitting under the dotted trend line marking the midline of the ascending channel for several months. This midline zone could be the target for this price rally, as the market could reach it and test it at around $140,000.
Another important observation on the daily chart is the confluence of breakouts and moving averages. The assets are well above both the 100-day and 200-day moving averages, and are slowly curved upwards. This suggests a fundamentally strong demand and a continuing trend. When BTC retraces, the 110K zone stands out as a major support block, as it is consistent with recent price memory as well as with the most recent major highs.
4-hour chart
BTC is expanding its four-hour time frame to test the bearish fair value gap between $118,000 and $119,000. This is currently acting as a resistance. After a sharp rally to $121K, prices returned modestly, forming a small range just below the bearish FVG.
The RSI has also cooled from the level it was acquired and now sits around 58 cases, suggesting there is even more room for a handstand in the short term. However, recent rejections from recent highs indicate that local resistance is being formed. This could lead to a short-term distribution unless the Bulls convincingly recapture this bearish FVG.
But below the current price, there are some clean bullish FVGs, extending from $114,000 and extending to $111K. These are the main zones for monitoring long setups if BTC drops further. They mark strong, unauthorized areas of demand where there is little resistance and prices have been impulsively rising.
Drop into these zones, followed by bullish price actions (sweeping and recall) provide a high-strength continuance opportunity for 125K and beyond.
Emotional analysis
Surge in Bitcoin retail activity
One of the most chain signals today is the surge in retail trading activity, as measured in spot retail activity in Bitcoin through trading frequency indicators. This metric evaluates the relative increase in retail participation based on changes from the one-year moving average. Historically, this metric surge is consistent with the main pivot, especially when red, indicating overheating conditions and excessive euphoria.
Currently, the chart does not show a red light. In other words, retail participation is still average. This shows that retailers and investors are still flooded with the market, at least not at what they have at their previous highest highs. This suggests that prices could rise sustainably if other factors, especially futures market indicators, remain stable.
