The AltSeason, or Altcoins season, could be closer than expected. This shows the behavior of the market that has become more aware of alternative cryptocurrencies for Bitcoin (BTC).
Currently, 50% of the top 50 major cryptocurrencies perform better than Bitcoin, according to an index developed by the company’s Blockchain Center. This number doesn’t reach the 75% technical threshold, which marks the official start of AltSeason. This standard represents important advances that reflect an increase in signaling within the market.
The concept of AltSeason does not have its own definition. In this case, three of the four Altcoins are considered to start if they exceed Bitcoins performance over the last 90 days, within three of the four Altcoins (excluding the Stablecoins and Lapped versions of BTC and Ether). The index to measure this behavior is used as by multiple analysts Important references to predict the beginning of a bullish cycle It focuses on cryptocurrencies other than Bitcoin.
Generally, the cryptocurrency market cycle is usually divided into four phases, as reported by encryption. The first is dominated by a powerful capital entrance to Bitcoin, whose prices reach his historic maximum. This already happened with BTC and has exceeded the US$120,000 threshold.
In the second phase, when BTC stabilizes, investors move a portion of their capital to ETH. This is the cryptocurrency of the Ethereum network in search of additional yields. This tends to reduce Bitcoin control in front of other markets.
In the third phase, Ethereum begins to acquire impulses, and capital flows into a highly capitalized altcoin. At this point, enthusiasm for more diverse projects within the ecosystem is growing.
Finally, the fourth phase is marked by speculative waves. Investors turn to coins with few solid foundationsin the middle of a highly euphoric environment. This stage can generate accelerated profits, but it also means high volatility and risk of loss.
At this point, the market is in phase 2 of the cycle. This is the first time this year since November 2021, 25% of the historic up to 4,890 USD already exceeded 25%.
Therefore, analysts such as Eric Jackson at EMJ Capital estimate that ETH could reach US$10,000 in the short term. Other forecasts like analyst Gert Van Lagen are more ambitious, with a goal of USD 18,000 in this upward cycle.
Bitcoin still dominates the market
Currently, the market is in the second phase of the cycle, with Altseason starting to heat up, while Bitcoin control is 60.3%, while Ethereum accounts for 11.6% of the market, while other cryptocurrencies concentrate at 28.2%.
This means that more than half of the capital within the ecosystem remains concentrated in Bitcoin. However, historically, The alto season coincides with a prominent fall in BTC domination. During the previous peak season of Altcoins, such as June 2017, January 2018, and December 2022, BTC’s market participation fell to 40%, as seen in the following Coinmarketcap graph.
For traders known as FDSs who are active in the TrainingView community, the market is at a turning point. According to the analysis, several indicators converge. The BTC domain is seen at a technical return level, with BTC/ETH PAR showing trends in change, and total cryptocurrency market capital showing historic maximums. Combination of this factor It suggests an imminent redistribution of capital to alternative assets.
Market reading also includes institutional behaviour indicators. According to analyst Axel Adler Jr. Altcoins Exchange’s average monthly flow rate was $1.6 billion until June 27thaverages below 2.5 billion yen per year. This contraction is considered a integrative phase. In previous cycles, similar levels of low flow preceded a sustained rise in altcoin prices, thus reinforcing the new rebound hypothesis.
Another relevant fact is the behavior of large cryptocurrency holders. According to the analysis of encryption collected through encryption, there was a massive, simultaneous departure of Altcoins from Binance, the world’s largest exchange. This dynamic is usually interpreted as a sign of accumulation.
Additionally, large investors, also known as whales, tend to transfer assets outside the platform, with the intention of keeping them cold, with the intention of keeping them in the long term. As offers available on the exchange decrease, sales pressure decreases; If demand is maintained, it could support a rise in prices.
This set of signals suggests that the Altcoins market is gaining traction. The 75% technical threshold required to formally declare AltSeason is not exceeded by the basis, current historical patterns, and current indicators. If BTC’s advantage continues to decline and technical conditions are integrated, Capital flow could be a more critical supporter of Altcoins in the coming weeks.