After rallying at a new all-time high of $123,000, Bitcoin prices slowed as sold outs destroyed the market. As always, this led to speculation that digital assets were looking at the top of the price range and marking the end of the bull market. However, the rally may not be over as we use realized price theory to show that Bitcoin prices are constantly rising all bull markets compared to previous cycle heights.
How Bitcoin Cycle Measurs Better Than Previous Realised Prices
Crypto analyst Gert Van Lagen joined X (formerly Twitter) to share an interesting historical trend that suggests that Bitcoin prices have not yet reached their cycle peak. This trend relates to the realised price of cryptocurrency and the number of multiples that rise relative to this realised price to mark a new cycle peak.
Pointing to the previous bull market, Van Lagen explains that Bitcoin is constantly rising by multiples of its realised price before it actually hits the top of a new cycle. Back in 2011, prices have risen eight times higher than realised prices before reaching the top of the market, and this trend will continue for the next 10 years.
Fast forward to 2013, Bitcoin prices will once again be set at a similar rally. This time, prices rose six times before reaching a new peak. A similar trend was seen again four years later on the next bull run that began in 2017. The BTC price ran five times more before the top was in.
Again, in 2021, Bitcoin prices always move to several times the realised price before calling the top. Despite the devastating market crash caused by Covid in 2020, Bitcoin was able to raise its realized price four times before reaching the top of $69,000 in 2021.
Given this trend, it is expected that BTC will track and place multiples of realized prices before the top is entered. However, looking at historic performance, each bull market shows the extent to which realised prices have fallen. Therefore, BTC may see a lower multiple compared to the four times seen in 2021.
According to GlassNode data, the current realisation price for Bitcoin is $51,000. This means that prices have already risen twice as much as they have so far. However, following the last few bull market trends, BTC could potentially win a multiple of its realised price. In that case, it is still very likely that Bitcoin will reach $150,000. Also, if this is a realised price theory, it means that the bull market is not over, and there are still runways in cryptocurrency.
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