Many developments have led to speculation that a four-year Bitcoin cycle has been established, often predicted when the Bull and Bear markets end. In this case, it means that the price action doesn’t go as expected. Just as Bull Market appears to have had an early start, the Bear Market could have an early start too.
Development that threatens the four-year cycle
The four-year cycle matches half of Bitcoin. Bitcoin occurs every four years when miners’ block rewards are reduced by half. Historically, the Bull Market began after half of Bitcoin was completed, and BTC prices appeared half after a year later. The bear market then follows the highest level ever, continuing to the next half. This was true in the last three cycles until 2024 when everything changed.
2024 was the last six months, and expectations were hoping that Bitcoin prices would reach a new all-time high in 2025 in a year. However, with the advent of the Spot Bitcoin ETF, approved by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), in January 2024, the price of BTC exploded, exploding new highs before schedule halving.
As the year progressed, so did BTC prices, and after half was completed on April 20th, prices moved forward. By December 2024, the price had already exceeded $100,000, almost doubled the value of the $69,000 high from the previous cycle.
Not only did Spot Bitcoin ETF promote BTC prices, it also had an entrance for Bitcoin finance companies. This was launched by Michael Saylor’s Strategy Inc. (formerly MicroStrategy), who began purchasing BTC in 2020. Fast forward to 2025 and now has over $74 billion in BTC, with the latest purchase announced on Monday.
Given the Spot Bitcoin ETF and the entrance to over 100 Bitcoin finance companies, it appears that BTC is in unknown territory as it was not present in the previous cycle. This could effectively end the four-year cycle with billions of dollars poured into the market at unprecedented rates.
What happens if the 4-year Bitcoin cycle is still unharmed?
Vibe Capital Management quantum Frank Fetter has announced what he can do next, provided Bitcoin’s four-year cycle remains the same. As he points out, traditionally, there was an average of 1,060 between Bitcoin’s bottom and the top in the Bull Market.
Currently, BTC is only about 1,000 days from the bottom of 2022. That means it will still take a few months. This could mean that there is a runway left to allow Bitcoin to hit a new all-time high before the next Bear Market rolls. “If the traditional four-year cycle continues, the next 100 days can be interesting,” Fetter said.
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