On-chain data and market chatter show that Bitcoin may be shifting to another phase. Glassnode warned on August 20 that recent profit and sales pressure will increase sales pressure points up to the later stages of the cycle. Traders and analysts look at it a lot.
Three cycles, not halving
According to analyst James Checkmate, Bitcoin history fits three broad cycles, rather than the rhythm set by Halvings.
He calls them the adoption cycle from 2011 to 2018, the adolescent cycle from 2018 to 2022, and the maturity cycle from 2022 onwards.
Checkmates argue that these phases were driven not by block reward reductions occurring every four years, but by changes in recruitment patterns and market structure.
He even said that Bitcoin is “the only other endgame asset alongside gold.”
In my opinion, Bitcoin has experienced 3 cycles and is not pinned around the halving.
They are fixed in trends in adoption and market structure, with top 2017 and bottom 2022 being the transition point
🔴Retail Early Recruitment
🟠 Wild West, boom &… pic.twitter.com/3rbuupnwen– _CHECKMATE🟠🔑⚡☢️🛢️ (@_Checkmatey_) August 26, 2025
Bitcoin Harving Pattern is still playing
As 2013, 2017, and 2021 are often pointed out as examples, it makes clear that the harving theory remains popular as the market peaks.
The story is that supply shocks from demand and declines in demand combine demand to increase prices, and observers say the 2025 pattern appears to be on the brink.
That view keeps the simple timing model alive: half, and the peak of the following year. It’s tidy and easy to model. That’s why many traders still use it.
BTCUSD trading at $111,357 on the 24-hour chart: TradingView
Institutional flows and fluidity
Based on the report, some voices now weigh heavily on fluidity and institutional flows than calendar-based events.
Analysts say the cycle is not officially over until the market sees positive returns next year. The four-year cycle may end.
Credit: Francesco Carta fotografo/Getty Images, Alice Morgan/Investopedia
They added that business cycle dynamics explain better peaks and troughs than halving the date. Market veterans keep it practical. The cycle never really goes away – people buy, prices rise, then sellers clear profits and we start again.
How long a bullish leg runs depends on where the liquidity is and how much new capital arrives.
$ BTC Long-term holders recognize more profits than all cycles except one previous cycle (2016–17), highlighting an increase in seller pressure. Taking alongside other signals, this suggests that the market has entered a later stage of the cycle. pic.twitter.com/phxkoizxhz
-Glass Node (@GlassNode) August 26, 2025
Bitcoin Signals and Betting
Meanwhile, GlassNode’s slow cycle signal is a warning and was released on August 20th. Traders following on-chain metrics point to sales rise and reduced accumulation as a sign that strengthens risk.
At the same time, supporters of the half-linked model note that the historic pattern: Bull peak occurred after halving in multiple cycles. Both sides use cases using hard days and numbers such as 2011, 2013, 2017, 2021, 2022, 2025, and 2026.
Equiti special images, TradingView chart
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