Will the UK sell 61,000 BTC or will it pay the victims profit?
The UK holds 61,000 Bitcoins worth around $7.2 billion after pleading guilty to fraud, and a January High Court test will determine who will earn the advantages from assets seized in 2018.
Zhimin Qian, also known as Yadi Zhang, pleaded guilty at Southwark Crown Court on September 29, a crime related to a multi-year investment fraud that affected more than 100,000 people in China, and Metropolitan Police previously said it had recovered 61,000 BTC from Hampstead’s property in 2018.
According to the Financial Times, prosecutors are preparing a route for the High Court to settle whether victims will be compensated at the recent market level by around £640 million, or at today’s valuation.
Its framing defines markets and legal questions. This is because principal-based compensation orders will pay a small amount back to the victim and leave a surplus to the state after confiscation, and Mark to Market’s awards will direct the victim to current value and reduce the financial windfall.
Legal mechanisms are important.
Under the Crimes Act of 2002, the court imposed forfeiture to remove criminal benefits and subsequently enforced against available assets that may include digital assets held in state custody. The Compensation Order under the Judgment Act 2020 focuses on losses to the victim and takes precedence over fines and confiscations that the offender cannot fulfill everything.
An appeal suspends payments under laws that affect timing even if liquid assets are ready to be distributed. The Ministry of Home Affairs updated its seizure and realisation authority in 2023 and 2024, allowing police and recipients to retain, convert and sell cryptography under court supervision. In 2025, the central government moved to national custody and realization frameworks to standardize its operations.
According to the Home Office publication, the money recovered will be processed through an asset recovery incentive scheme that divides net receipts between the central government and operational partners such as police and prosecutors.
The immediate forward question is the evaluation date and distribution pass. If the High Court adopts the original loss as the basis for compensation, the victim will receive approximately £640 million, with the rest being confiscated.
Under ARI, the net surplus is shared between Exchequer Recocerical and Asset Recovery Agencies after fees and expenses. If the court requires payment at current market value, the proceeds flow to the victim after realisation or by distributing the BTC or its cash, and by distributing the cash or its cash into the scheme.
According to the Financial Times, authorities are debating the implications of windfall, but are unable to recognize revenue from the November financial event, and distribution will depend on orders, appeals and recipient timetables.
Market angle turns on cadence rather than size.
Over the past week, the US Spot Bitcoin ETF has recorded net inflows of over $1.6 billion, indicating that the market is routinely absorbing daily demand or supply shocks within its band.
At a round price of nearly $119,000, 61,000 btc is equivalent to about $7.2 billion. This maps heavy ETF spill dates of about 18-29 if sold as lumps.
Kaiko’s liquidity survey explains a market where US venues offer the deepest 1% order book depth in BTC pairs and reduces execution risk when sales routes through commercial desks are sliced at time, time and venue.
Therefore, the implementation method is the second policy decision. Government sellers rely on two playbooks that are compatible with the British powers.
We use block trading through prime brokers and OTC market makers to limit the visible footprint of exchanges and smooth out the impact on prices.
Another uses an auction or controlled exchange program, a model that British police previously used on small lots through commercial auctioneers.
The new national management and realisation framework demonstrates the intention to industrialize processes for larger cases using receivers, compliance controls and reporting lines within Poka and court oversight.
The outcomes of victims and taxpayers also diverge at the time.
Following compensation on the original loss, forfeiture of the residue refers to a faster path to victims’ cash after the appeal period.
Mark-to-Market rewards raise more complex distribution choices, as paying with BTC distributes market risk to many recipients.
In any case, the timing of the January hearing and appeal will govern when distributions begin, and the state cannot book value into a short-term financial plan.
A recent paced program that stays within the ETF flow noise band to ground supply questions in operational conditions would be: This uses $120,000 per BTC for illustrations and ignores slips and fees.
| Sale Cadence | Daily BTC | Daily concepts | The day to clear 61,000 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Slowly drip | 250 | $30,000,000 | 244 |
| pace | 500 | $60,000,000 | 122 |
| Aggressive | 1,000 | $120,000,000 | 61 |
| Wave sales, every week | 5,000 | $600,000,000 | 12 waves |
These sizes fall into the ability of ETFs and large OTC counterparties to absorb as they spread across sessions. This comparison does not imply a price range, but rather clarifies the sizing compared to observable flows.
The precedents on which the comparison indicates that the market can handle state outflows when the method is disciplined. Germany sold a massive tranche of BTC seized in 2024 through transfers and exchange sales, and the US discarded Silk Road holdings through regular OTC-like routes after moving coins to regulated prime brokers. However, the remaining BTC is currently allocated to the “strategic Bitcoin Reserve.”
According to public disclosures and company statements, these processes were staged, with the market focusing on the transfer date and prices recovered after the initial volatility. The UK lawsuit is in a different legal context than previous UK sales. This is because the court must balance compensation under the POCA and the obligation to forfeiture and the obligation to forfeiture under the Judgment Act.
The unresolved legal point is whether the victim has become a whole in terms of admission costs or is it a whole in terms of current value. According to the CPS guidance and the summary of the Home Office policy, compensation is intended to regain losses and prioritizes punitive orders. This is a design that supports the original loss as a baseline, with confiscation removing criminal benefits and leading remaining value to the state through ARI, through ARI once compensation is met.
The Financial Times reports that the authorities prepare discussions in line with its structure, and that hearing results form distribution schemes, financial footprints and subsequent sales plans.
The decision to lock in compensation to the original loss leaves a surplus that the state can achieve under court supervision, as receipts are split between receipts and operational partners.
The decision to use current value assigns the majority of BTC’s value to the victim. This has a realization mechanic depending on whether the payment is cash or in physical form.
The plea has been entered, the coin is in custody and the court calendar is set for the January valuation test.
