More than half of Bitcoin’s distribution supply has not been moving for 12 months, and this structural feature will shape how the market will absorb demand by the end of the year.
According to Bitbo, about 61% of coins have been dormant for more than a year, with about 17% for more than a decade in the deepest cohort.
The latest HODL Waves splits are around 8% for 7-10 years, around 5% for 5-7 years, around 13% for 3-5 years, around 7% for 2-3 years, around 11.5% for 1-2 years, around 13% for 6-12 months, around 7.5% for 3-6 months, around 9.5% for 1-3 months, and around 5% for less than 1 month.
These bands measure the supply by the final movement on the chain rather than a change in total supply, and are binning sensitive and exchange tagging options between providers.
Realized-Cap HODL Waves weights bands on a cost-based basis rather than coin count, allowing you to identify the economic weight of the holders, making it a valuable lens for determining whether the rally relies on thin, short-term floating rates or the confidence of a broader balance sheet.
Supply profiles intersect with the demand background shaped by regulated funding and macropolicy. In the week ending October 4th, cryptocurrency exchange traded products were driven by US spot products, with a net inflow of approximately $5.95 billion.
At a price of around $125,000 per Bitcoin, $5.95 billion per week means that if this pace lasts for a whole week, it would absorb about 47,600 BTC, which is about 0.24% of distribution supply.
This framing does not assume a constant inflow. This sets the baseline for the size and behavior of younger cohorts that have historically provided more marginal sell-sides.
A shortage of supply remains meaningful.
Based on the latest data, the 1-3 month, 3-6 month, and 6-12 month combinations account for approximately 30-35 percent of supply. This is the band composition that is most sensitive to quarterly price and macro changes.
These cohorts tend to experience physical fitness improvements, but the group ages 2 and older rotates slowly than usual. One cross-check to see if the old holders are back is Coin-Days Destroyed.
According to Bitbo, tracking the 90-day moving average of CDDs along with prices can help identify a surge in revivals from long-term held coins and a quiet accumulation period that continues to grow older.
A steady or downward trend towards rising CDD prices means a modest distribution from long-term holders, but a sharp rise in CDDs due to volatility often indicates that older coins are on the market.
Macropolicies may affect the fluid composition and trends of middle-aged holders through the end of the year. The Fed cut its policy rate by 25 basis points in September, and the economic outlook outline pointed out that additional easing will be implemented in 2025 depending on the outcome of inflation.
The median route suggests a reduction in policy rates next year.
In terms of inflation, US consumer prices rose 2.9% year-on-year in August.
The disinflation trend remains uneven, but has eased from its early peak. The pathways for easing inflation and gradual policy easing can narrowly reduce real yields, and although the chain of causality is less deterministic and probabilistic, this combination has historically supported risk appetite, such as the inflow of capital into Bitcoin-related products.
Supply and demand calculations can be assembled in a simple scenario that maps the flow of funds to available floats from bands for shorter periods. Using the same price anchor for comparison, about 8,000 BTC is absorbed for every $1 billion net inflow of $125,000 per BTC.
The $500 million to $2 billion per week ranges to 4,000-16,000 BTC per week, which can be compared to reasonable monthly rotation rates for a cohort of 1-12 months.
If 30% of the supply is within these bands, a monthly rotation of 5% would release around 0.05 x 0.30 x 19.7 million or about 295,500 BTC per month, which averages close to 73,900 BTC per week.
This figure overwhelms the inflow pace of $500 million to $2 billion, but the rotation is rarely uniform and often focuses on price events and derivative positioning.
If the rotation drops to 1% per month, weekly releases will be close to 14,800 BTC, a scale that will be completely offset by a $2 billion inflow per week.
The purpose of modeling is not to modify forecasts, but to define the thresholds that demand is absorbed or absorbed by the short-term supply stack.
| It was a band | About Share |
|---|---|
| Over 10 years | ~17% |
| 7-10 years | ~8% |
| 5-7 years | ~5% |
| 3-5 years | ~13% |
| 2-3 years | ~7% |
| 1-2 years | ~11.5% |
| 6-12 months | ~13% |
| 3-6 months | ~7.5% |
| 1-3 months | ~9.5% |
| Less than a month | ~5% |
Another lens is Realized-Cap HODL Waves, which tracks the share of realized value that age groups have. The rise in share of older bands due to realised value means that the economic impact of long-term holders is growing.
As CDD remains restrained towards the end of the year, if the wave of realised cap HODL continues to lean towards even older ones, the rally could rely on thinner offers from holders with more cost-based discipline than new capital.
Conversely, as ETP flows slowly and CDDs rise, medium-term bands expand as the resurrected coin resets age, a pattern often seen after the market hits record highs as profits are consumed.
| scenario | Estimated Pure ETP Flow (Every Week) | Implicit BTC absorption (every week) | Short Age Rotation, Monthly | The implicit BTC released every week |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Low demand | 0.5 billion dollars | ~4,000 | 5% | ~73,900 |
| base | $1.5 billion | ~12,000 | 2% | ~29,600 |
| High demand | $4 billion | ~32,000 | 1% | ~14,800 |
In this context, foreign exchange balances continue to be a key indicator.
According to multiple public dashboards, centralized exchange balances are near their lowest in years, but there are some things to be aware of with this indicator. Wallet practices, off-exchange payments and internalization allow you to reduce the exchange count without changing market value.
Exchange tagging is incomplete and should be combined with other signals such as order book depth, futures based, and on-chain age flow before conclusion of supply shocks.
The price context constitutes these flows and bands, but does not change accounting.
Bitcoin began price determination this week, coinciding with a strong week of funding flows. Whether or not such a capital inflow will depend on risk appetite and policy expectations.
If inflation rates remain at the latest around 2.9% annual rate and the policy-driven trend towards gradual easing is maintained, there is room for continued allocation from previously unheld Bitcoin.
If inflation re-accelerates or policy induction becomes restrictive, shorter period bands could supply more inventory as traders avoid risk, and this change will first appear with CDD and one to three months’ worth of shares.
The challenge over the next few weeks is tracking three elements in parallel.
First, we have a weekly net ETP flow, comparing it to an absorption standard of 8,000 BTC per billion, with CoinShares tally as the baseline.
Second, the 90-day trends and revival of CDDs explode against prices.
Third, the slope of HODL Waves on both coin-number and realised value-based basis.
Together, these series explain whether the market is pulling money from a deep-rooted patient base or from a faster spinning short-term inventory. This will determine how further demand interacts with a significantly aging supply stack towards October.
