The apparent change in Ethereum’s spot order activity suggests that large investors are accumulating assets at a discount, reflecting a change in behavior that has historically signaled a potential trend reversal.
So-called whales holding between 10,000 and 100,000 ETH have increased their balances by 7.6 million tokens since late April, an increase of 52%. At the same time, retail wallets holding between 100 and 1,000 ETH were sold, reducing their holdings by 16%. cryptoquant data.
The indicator, which measures spot trading volumes higher than the average of executed trades, was observed multiple times after Ethereum fell to $3,000 in early November.
common patterns mark According to ShayanMarkets, certified analyst at CryptoQuant, this is “the beginning of a late-stage compression phase that precedes a trend reversal or big rally.”
A second wind?
“It remains likely that whale buildup will form a local bottom,” said Sean Young, principal analyst at MEXC Research. decryption. “This cycle is similar to previous lows and is characterized by large wallets absorbing sell-side liquidity from short-term holders.”
Young pointed to the stability of the ETH/BTC ratio at multi-month lows as a sign of relative strength. This is further supported by the 25% increase in daily transactions from September levels and the normalization of staked Ethereum discounts. $19 billion The market collapsed on October 10th.
This marker is not specific to Ethereum, but reflects recent changes in broader market trends. Improving macroeconomic outlookincluding the possibility of an end to one of the longest-running government shutdowns in the United States.
“The whale accumulation makes sense and we think the same is true for Bitcoin. New participants are coming in to absorb selling pressure from the OGs who believe in four-year cycles,” said Lai Yuen, investment analyst at Fisher 8 Capital. decryption. “If the macro environment remains favorable…Ethereum is likely to bottom at $3,200 and Bitcoin is likely to bottom at $98,000.”
“There is still a lot of excitement from the traditional financial industry regarding the tokenization of assets,” Yuen added, highlighting that supportive regulatory context could be a further catalyst.
Yuen added that a formal crypto market structure bill could also help boost Ethereum prices, as it would bring more transparency to the market and end regulatory overreach that could be keeping investors away.
But if bipartisan talks are to resume this year, the government shutdown will need to end soon. decryption Previously reported.
face upgrade
The story of organizational re-entry is also fueled by the Fusaka upgrade, which is scheduled for mainnet activation on December 3rd.
This long-awaited update will improve network scalability and reduce transaction costs by adding a dedicated data lane for rollups, enabling layer 2 protocol expansion, and freeing up the main chain.
“This is an important update because next in Ethereum adoption will come from real-world applications and DeFi protocols, all of which rely on cheaper and faster transactions,” MEXC’s Young explained.
Additionally, this upgrade introduces peer data availability sampling, which allows nodes to share small portions of data rather than entire blocks, reducing bandwidth and hardware requirements.
Reducing node requirements allows more people to participate in network verification, which theoretically increases decentralization and security.
Despite some solid home runs, Yuen emphasized the possibility of a trade-off.
The introduction of blob lanes and improved blob fees will make layer 2 protocols built on top of Ethereum cheaper, the analyst noted, suggesting it could “lead to lower fees and reduce burn on Ethereum.”
Still, if the current accumulation behavior persists and the $3,000 to $3,400 area holds as support, analysts expect Ethereum to enter a correction phase that could pave the way for further upside.
Ethereum has fallen 1.6% in 24 hours and is currently trading at $3,560, according to CoinGecko data.