According to author and analyst Adam Livingston, Bitcoin’s (BTC) power law dictates that BTC’s “fair value” is $142,000, suggesting that BTC’s price is poised to skyrocket.
According to Livingston, Bitcoin’s upper price limit by December 31, 2025 is expected to be around $512,000, while the fair value price is around $142,000, with the lower end of the range just north of $50,000.
Livingston said it was unusual for the price to “push” above the fair value line after March 2024, suggesting Bitcoin was poised for an explosive rally. He added:
“Each time BTC has done this so far, one of two things has happened: either it exploded upwards because it was cheap relative to the long-term power law, or it briefly fell to the lower band and then split vertically more violently than before.”
BTC price analysis based on Bitcoin power law. sauce: adam livingston
This bullish price prediction comes amidst analyst downgrades to BTC forecasts and a drop in crypto prices, raising investor fears that the next bear market has already begun.
Market analysts and crypto industry executives lower their BTC price forecasts
Following October’s historic market crash, multiple investment firms lowered their BTC price forecasts after the price fell below the psychologically important price level of $100,000.
Galaxy on Wednesday lowered its end-2025 forecast for Bitcoin to $120,000 from $180,000, citing the October market crash, lower volatility as the market matures, and investors shifting to competing narratives such as AI.
“If Bitcoin can sustain the $100,000 level, the pace of rally may slow going forward, but the nearly three-year bull market will remain structurally intact,” said Alex Thorne, Head of Corporate Research at Galaxy.
Thorne added that October’s crypto market crash “did significant damage” to bullish price trends in the short term, but said he remains bullish on Bitcoin’s long-term price trend.
Cathie Wood, founder of investment firm Ark Invest, also lowered her long-term Bitcoin price forecast by $300,000, as stablecoins are eating away at Bitcoin’s market share by meeting demand for store-of-value assets in emerging markets.