Short-term Bitcoin holders panic again, analysts say we are at a crossroads

Short-term holders are once again realizing losses, and that pressure is showing in the data. STH SOPR fell to around 0.94 and Bitcoin traded around $85,550 to $85,680. This number means that many recent buyers sold for less than they paid. The market often reacts to this type of selloff with sharp movements. Sometimes prices recover. There may also be a series of slides.

History shows deep troughs in SOPR during major corrections

There are patterns in the market based on past movements. According to the report, during the main adjustment period, SOPR reached its lowest level around 0.87 in early 2019 and around 0.88-0.90 in 2022-2023.

Since 2023, short-term holders have reached the stress point three times: in August-September 2024 (STH SOPR approximately 0.98), in April 2025 (0.94), and now in November 2025 (0.94).

According to reports, this latest drop mirrors previous stress waves. Traders remember that the capitulation of short-term holders is often preceded by months of consolidation followed by renewed strength.

BTC – Short-term holders have abandoned…

“A rebound is likely in the short term, but if it falls again and loses the $80,000 level, we are much more likely to face even tougher times.” – by @DanCoinInvestor pic.twitter.com/VZ1M2MnvaO

— CryptoQuant.com (@cryptoquant_com) November 24, 2025

Key on-chain and market signals point in both directions

CryptoQuant’s broad view is controversial, and some are concerned. The bull score index is at 20. Bitcoin has fallen below its 365-day moving average. The report warns that a fall below $80,000 would increase the likelihood of a longer and more severe economic downturn.

At the same time, the recent selloff has left BTC about 32% off its all-time high hit in early October, after dropping about 10% over the past week. Analysts are now closely monitoring these levels for clues.

Focus on liquidity and clearing

The liquidation map shows that there is significant short exposure between $87,000 and $95,000. According to data cited by Ash Crypto and Coinglass, a 15% price increase could result in up to $8.5 billion in short-term liquidations.

This creates the potential for rapid price increases if buying overwhelms short bets. Analysts emphasized the downside resistance that Bitcoin must overcome.

A successful breakout could lead to a 10-12% rally towards around $96,500, analysts said. In other words, just one powerful move can turn pressure into momentum.

🚨If Bitcoin rose 15%, $8.5 billion worth of shorts would be liquidated. pic.twitter.com/F9FcqhVyTl

— AshCrypto (@AshCrypto) November 23, 2025

Two ways to expand in the next stage

Market participants are weighing two basic scenarios. One is that this selloff marks the final stage of a mid-cycle correction, followed by continued accumulation and recovery.

Another view is that these losses are the beginning of a more serious market shift that will take even longer to repair. Based on reports, some analysts believe that a large 70%-style crash from all-time highs is unlikely, but the risks cannot be ignored if the support fails.

Bitcoin’s critical crossroads

For now, Bitcoin is at a clear inflection point. Short-term coins are once again selling at a loss, the liquidity cluster is piling up around the $87,000 to $95,000 range, and major indicators are showing stress.

Traders and institutions are likely to decide on Bitcoin’s next big move in the coming days and weeks, either by forcing it higher through liquidations or by pushing the price lower if demand remains weak.

Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView