Bitcoin’s price performance in the final quarter of 2025 has been a major concern for crypto enthusiasts, and rightly so. At one point in the past few weeks, the premium cryptocurrency looked like it would end the year deep in the red zone.
Over the past week, Bitcoin price has shown signs of a healthy recovery, regaining a significant support level at $90,000. Crypto experts say the market leader may be performing better than the charts currently show.
Has BTC already set its price?
In a Nov. 28 post on social media platform Questions that Bitcoin investors are constantly faced with.
The macro analyst says the flagship cryptocurrency is pricing in the weakest global growth outlook since 2022 (marked by Federal Reserve tightening and the collapse of FTX) and 2020 (in the midst of the COVID-19 pandemic).
Dragos revealed that by using a series of key macro studies, he was able to determine the level of global growth expectations that Bitcoin is already pricing in. “Bitcoin is inherently priced into a recessionary growth environment,” Bitwise researchers wrote.
Dragosh added:
Personally, I’m a macro contrarian because Bitcoin can underperform or overperform the general macro outlook. Asset pricing is fundamentally determined by macro sentiment. In my opinion, this is where most of the alpha is created.
As mentioned above, the last time macro expectations were this pessimistic was in 2020 and 2022, when Bitcoin underperformed macro expectations before making a strong recovery. Dragosh believes that a reenactment of this scenario is currently underway.
Source: @Andre_Dragosch on XBitwise head of European research then said: “Based on the amount of financial stimulus so far, global growth expectations will accelerate from here. This points to a re-acceleration through 2026.”
Dragosh said the last time there was this asymmetric risk-reward was during a pandemic, when Bitcoin prices initially crashed during the shock of March 2020, before soaring sixfold by the end of the year. This macro setting can be compared to a “coiled spring or a ball in water.”
According to the macro analyst, Bitcoin’s current trajectory appears to be in the form of a “coiled spring,” meaning the price may be poised for a violent move after a period of temporary compression. Dragosh concluded his analysis by saying that investors aren’t bullish enough at all.
Bitcoin price overview
As of this writing, the price of BTC is around $90,880 with no significant movement in the past 24 hours.
The price of BTC on the daily timeframe | Source: BTCUSDT chart on TradingView
Featured image from iStock, chart from TradingView
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