Last week, Bitcoin recorded a significant wave of correction, with the price hitting a low of $85,000 as broader financial markets also fell on fears of an impending recession. While many are choosing to exit their investments, recent on-chain data shows that the current turbulent market provides ideal accumulation opportunities for risk-seeking Bitcoin investors.
Accumulation Zone – Stressful in real time but rewarding in the long run: Analyst
Q4 2025 was primarily a long period of time for most Bitcoin investors. After hitting a new high of $126,100 in early October, the major cryptocurrencies have struggled to rise further in price, but instead succumbed to strong selling pressure and fell 30.1%. However, based on historical data from the MVRV percentile indicator, Bitcoin’s recent price decline has pushed the market into a new situation favorable to risk-tolerant investors.
For context, Bitcoin MVRV (Market Value vs. Realized Value) compares Bitcoin’s current market cap to its realized value (the value of the coin at the time of its last move on the chain) and indicates whether BTC is overvalued or undervalued. It can be difficult to compare raw MVRV from cycle to cycle. The MVRV percentile thus ranks the current MVRV against the historical distribution (0-100), helping to determine extremes across different cycles. A high percentile indicates market overheating, and a low percentile indicates capitulation.
Using this indicator, experienced market analyst RugaResearch explains that the current MVRV percentile is in the range of 0-10%, and this range is usually associated with mass capitulation of investors and market losses as fear dominated the market. However, crypto experts also observed that similar market conditions served as an ideal entry point to exponential price increases.
For example, after the Mt Gox black swan incident in 2015, Bitcoin’s MVRV fell below 10% and the price crashed to around $200-300, creating a wave of pessimism among investors, some of whom may have expected an outright regulatory ban. However, the premier cryptocurrency soared with great traction in the months that followed, reaching a peak price of $20,000 in 2017, a 10x gain.
RugaResearch also notes a more recent example after the FTX collapse in 2022, when BTC fell to $15,000, but this was preceded by other events, such as the collapse of the Terra Luna ecosystem and companies such as Celsius and Three Arrows Capital. Despite intense market concerns during this period, Bitcoin would record another resurgence doubling in price over the next year.
Is Bitcoin experiencing a boom?
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $88,200, up 0.54% over the past day. However, the performance on the weekly and monthly charts reported losses of 2.52% and 3.52% respectively as many investors remained underwater and others withdrew from the market. Nevertheless, RugaResearch describes the recent retail selloff as an ideal “high-risk, high-return” zone, considering the MVRV percentile is below 10. Analysts are urging investors to save aggressively to benefit from the next explosive rally.
Featured image from Pexels, chart from Tradingview.com
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