This Christmas rally did not come to Bitcoin (BTC). Instead of gifts, Bitcoiners found coal under the tree, and the market ended this year on a low note, far from the usual bullish expectations.
At the time of publication of this note, Bitcoin price is $88,000It is 30% below its all-time high (ATH) of $126,100.
As reported by CriptoNoticias, the New Year’s Eve party typically coincides with periods of bullish momentum for BTC. This action inspired the idea of a “Christmas Gathering” for many years..
But 2025 defies that logic. This digital asset has undergone its worst period in history over the past four months (September, October, November, and December), with a cumulative decline of nearly 22.06%, as shown below.
If 2025 ends like this, it will be the second worst year-end for BTC. This is only higher than in 2018, when prices plummeted by 42.16%.
Now, it’s worth asking what’s behind this decline. In early October, BTC broke through the $126,000 barrier for the first time in history.
At the time, there was strong market enthusiasm and expectations were high that the asset could move towards the $130,000 area.
However, on October 10th, the market reacted strongly to a new flare-up in the US-China conflict, and prices plummeted.
That same day, President Donald Trump used his Truth Social account to warn that his administration was analyzing the possibility of applying “massive tariff increases” on Chinese goods.
The message was enough to reignite fears of a new escalation of the situation. Trade war between the world’s two largest economies It hit the psyche of investors.
This episode was a turning point for the market. The geopolitical noise comes at a time when valuations are tough and optimism is already priced into prices.
This weakened confidence and left BTC with no room to maintain the bullish inertia that typically characterizes the end of the year, giving way to a cautious and profit-taking scenario.
One of the events that was expected to trigger the market was an interest rate cut by the US Federal Reserve (FED).
On December 10th, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) met to decide on the monetary policies of the world’s major financial countries.
As expected by the market, the institution chaired by Jerome Powell Lower interest rates by 25 basis points. Historically, this type of decision usually evokes an appetite for risk because it lowers the cost of money and facilitates the entry of liquidity into financial markets.
but, In this case, the cut was not enough to reactivate the euphoria. Risk appetite did not return, and assets deemed risky, such as BTC and cryptocurrencies, were unable to take advantage of this measure.
This correction in BTC reflects a change in market mood. And after hitting a historic high in early October, its momentum waned, and in the absence of any new clear bullish signals, investors lost appetite for risk-taking, replaced by profit-taking and cautious moves.
But neither hopes for seasonal increases nor Fed rate cuts could reverse the situation.
With the euphoria gone, BTC entered the end of 2025 in a defensive posture, with its worst performance in the last period of the year, once again breaking the Christmas rally story.