Over the past few months, oil prices have fallen below $60 per barrel as Bitcoin has fallen from $126,000 in October to about $89,000 now.
So does the decline in energy reflect weaker demand or stagnant inflation, which could impact risk assets like Bitcoin in the future?
Brent closed at $58.92 and WTI at $55.27, the lowest settlement since early 2021.
This move can be read as macro pricing towards abundant supply and soft consumption.
For the crypto market, the framework shifts focus from a simple “lower inflation, higher risk” narrative.
Rather, the question arises whether financial conditions will become tighter due to growth concerns before policy easing is realized.
The official forecast leans towards remaining in surplus until 2026.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration expects inventories to increase through 2026, with Brent prices expected to reach around $55 in the first quarter of 2026 and hover around that level thereafter.
The International Energy Agency predicts that supply growth will outpace demand growth through 2026, with supply increasing by 2.4 million barrels per day, while demand will increase by 860,000 barrels per day.
The World Bank also presents a downward growth scenario in which oil prices average around $59 a barrel, linking weak prices to economic activity below baseline assumptions.
However, research data is not yet moving in lockstep with oil’s message, and the market will have to decide which signal will lead.
JP Morgan and S&P Global’s global composite PMI for November was 52.7, remaining in expansion territory and consistent with an annualized global GDP rate of around 3% in that framework.
S&P Global said expectations and job growth are subdued.
In the US, S&P Global’s preliminary PMI softened in December, with the composite reading at 53 compared to 54.2 previously, with service cooling.
In Europe, France’s preliminary composite PMI was around 50.1, near the stagnation line.
Bitcoin’s macro-sensitivity in this setting tends to be driven by risk appetite and liquidity, as well as inflationary effects.
Why oil prices remain important for Bitcoin macro setting
If oil reflects a demand shock, stocks and credit may become volatile first, and BTC often trades as high beta during the risk aversion phase.
When financial stress increases, BTC also tends to act like a barometer of liquidity, reacting quickly to tightening funding or widening credit spreads.
Growth concerns may increase expectations for rate cuts, but markets may still sell risky assets first if positioning and leverage adjust faster than policy.
So far, recession dashboards, which tend to be the most important for cryptocurrencies, have not confirmed widespread stress.
U.S. high yield spreads remain near recent lows, with the option-adjusted spread on the ICE BofA US High Yield Index at about 2.95% as of mid-December.
The Treasury curve was also positive, with the 10-year minus 3-month spread sitting around +0.54% as of late December.
This eliminates one of the common arguments for a recession amid widespread growth concerns.
Regarding labor, the real-time Therm Rule index recorded 0.43 in November 2025, below the threshold of 0.50 associated with calls for a recession.
| indicator | latest level | watch level | BTC related reads | sauce |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brent, WTI | $58.92, $55.27 | Maintain near 2021 lows | Price revisions due to weak demand may be at risk | financial times |
| Hoas | ～2.95% | >4% | Widening spreads may coincide with deleveraging and liquidity tightening | fred |
| Sahm rules (real time) | 0.43 | 0.50 or more | Weakening labor force could turn growth concerns into recession pricing | fred |
| 10y minus 3m | ~+0.54% | Return below 0 | Curve re-inversion can enhance defensive positioning | fred |
| Comprehensive global PMI | 52.7 | <50 (persistent) | Significant downsizing could tighten earnings and credit expectations | S&P Global |
Three macro paths for Bitcoin where oil, interest rates, and growth diverge
The coming months will likely point to three paths, depending on whether the oil recession is primarily supply- or demand-driven.
If supply remains plentiful in line with the EIA and IEA outlook, while credit remains calm and the curve remains positive, BTC could remain range bound.
In that case, volatility may center on rates and positioning rather than forced selling.
If the PMI moves towards 50 and the unemployment rate trends upward, a standard risk-off phase could put pressure on BTC without a complete squeeze out of funds.
That’s because portfolio risk budgets often tighten in advance of recession data materializing.
More serious consequences, such as high-yield spreads widening significantly and therm rules exceeding 0.50, will require confirmation from credit and labor agencies.
These situations can occur simultaneously with reduced leverage and reduced liquidity.
Pricing is already reacting to the softening data.
According to Reuters, U.S. interest rate futures briefly increased the probability of a January interest rate cut after November’s jobs report showed an increase in the unemployment rate.
This highlights how quickly the price of policy courses can change amid growth concerns.
Whether this repricing supports Bitcoin depends on whether funding conditions remain stable as oil remains anchored near early 2021 levels.