Ethereum is struggling to regain higher price levels as persistent resistance continues to cap its upward momentum. After repeated failed recovery attempts, ETH remains trapped in a fragile structure, reflecting widespread uncertainty across crypto markets. Analysts remain divided on the near-term outlook, but a growing number are speaking out about the risk of a broader bear market in 2026, citing weakening momentum, deteriorating sentiment and declining liquidity as key warning signs.
Against this disturbing backdrop, on-chain activity is once again in the spotlight. Data tracked by Arkham shows that the high-profile Bitcoin OG, known for correctly shorting the market during the October 10 crash, made a significant move involving a sizable position in Ethereum. The scale and timing of this activity has gone unnoticed, especially given the impact on trader performance and market sentiment.
The deal has fueled speculation about its intentions. Some market participants interpreted the move as a defensive repositioning amid heightened downside risks, while others saw it as a calculated adjustment in advance of heightened volatility. Regardless of interpretation, large-scale transfers from well-known companies tend to have signaling value, especially if they occur during periods of technological weakness.
With Ethereum still below key resistance levels, the market is now closely monitoring whether this on-chain development portends fresh selling pressure or a more complex change in positioning. The upcoming sessions could be crucial for Ethereum’s medium-term direction as sentiment is already tense.
Ethereum whale transfer causes positioning speculation
On-chain data shared by Lookonchain showed signs of a significant move by the so-called Bitcoin OG, a trader known for managing a massive $717 million long exposure across Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana. A wallet associated with this entity deposited 100,000 ETH, worth approximately $292 million, onto Binance and quickly attracted the attention of both investors and analysts.
Given the size of the transfer and the trader’s previous impact on the market, this trade is widely viewed as a potential signal rather than a routine activity.
Several scenarios offer the most plausible explanations. The most obvious one is risk management. By moving ETH to an exchange, holders can reduce their exposure by selling spot ETH or opening hedges through derivatives, protecting existing long portfolios during heightened volatility. Another possibility is collateral management. Large traders often transfer assets to exchanges to support margin requirements or rebalance leverage, especially during periods of falling prices.
There is also room for consideration of less bearish interpretations. This deposit may be part of a short-term tactical trade, allowing for quick execution without indicating an intention to completely exit the position. In some cases, large holders may move assets between custodians or exchanges for operational reasons, but timing makes this less likely.
After all, this earnest money deposit does not guarantee a complete sale. However, it does suggest that traders are actively managing risk. With Ethereum still under technical pressure, the market will be watching closely to see if this ETH transfer precedes further distribution or proves to be a temporary correction within a broader long-term strategy.
Price maintains long-term support
Ethereum is trading near the $2,930 level on the weekly chart, consolidating after a sharp pullback from the $4,800-$5,000 highs set earlier in the cycle. Although prices remain well above long-term macro support, recent structure clearly reflects a loss of momentum. ETH has moved from a strong impulsive rally to a correction phase, characterized by falling highs and increasing selling pressure in key resistance zones.
From a trend perspective, Ethereum is currently hovering around medium- to long-term moving averages. The faster weekly moving average loss signaled the beginning of a correction, but the price is now testing a zone around the 200-week average that has historically served as a key inflection point during major market transitions. The region now serves as a battleground for long-term buyers and sellers defending their former interests.
Price movements in recent weeks suggest indecision rather than capitulation. Large downside candles are followed by smaller body candles, indicating that aggressive selling is slowing, but buyers have not yet regained control. Volumes support this interpretation, with increased activity during the initial decline and quieter participation during the consolidation.
Structurally, the $2,800 to $3,000 range is extremely important. Holding this zone maintains Ethereum’s broader bull market structure. A sustained decline below this would likely confirm a deeper correction move, and stabilization could allow ETH to build a foundation before challenging higher resistance levels around $3,400 and $3,800.
Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com
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