Bitcoin (BTC) is gearing up for a structural transformation in 2026 after a 2025 close marked by volatility and a 36% drop in market valuation.
Bitcoin’s halving has entered its mature phase, and analysts and investment firms predict that next year will be more than just a recovery period. But the beginning of an era dominated by institutional investment and Bitcoin integration As a global reserve asset.
Investment firm Grayscale argues that the current bull market will find new impetus in closer financial integration. “Our optimistic outlook is based on two main pillars: first, macroeconomic demand for alternative stores of value will continue,” he explains.
“Bitcoin is a rare digital commodity and can be thought of as an alternative monetary asset. “Fiat currencies face additional risks due to high and growing public sector debt and the potential long-term impact on inflation,” notes Grayscale. Although the company has a bullish forecast for 2026, it does not mention specific prices for digital currencies in its conclusions.
Scarce commodities such as gold, silver, or Bitcoin act as a counterweight to fiat risk in your portfolio. As the risk of fiat currency devaluation continues to increase, we believe the demand for Bitcoin in wallets will likely continue to increase as well.
Grayscale, asset management company
Regarding the signature, The second fundamental pillar is legislative clarity. Grayscale predicts that in 2026, the U.S. Congress will “likely pass bipartisan legislation on crypto market structure, which will consolidate digital assets in the U.S. capital markets and encourage continued institutional investment.”
“Given favorable macroeconomic conditions, we believe these will be the conditions for a new all-time high for Bitcoin in 2026,” Grayscale concluded.
Transitioning Bitcoin as a standardized asset
CoinShares agrees that market perceptions are changing towards financial maturity.
The company says that in 2026, “Bitcoin will complete its transition from being recognized as an experimental asset to becoming a standardized asset within institutional investor portfolios.” He argues that this process will be driven by a clearer regulatory environment.as reported by CriptoNoticias, options market expansion and strengthening flows related to US-traded Bitcoin ETFs.
CoinShares describes its optimistic scenario as “a combination of a soft landing, AI-enabled productivity gains, and a more decisive rate cut.”
According to the company, this framework will encourage risk-taking and “lift Bitcoin above $150,000.” In the most likely base case, companies expect “subdued growth, positive real earnings, and a prudent Federal Reserve.” This leads to more stable market movements. In 2026, it will regain momentum and “Bitcoin will go from $110,000 to $140,000 next year.”
A bear scenario is defined as a “threat of stagflation or recession with rising real yields,” creating an environment that puts pressure on ETFs and increases defensive play. “In this case, BTC will reach $70,000 to $100,000,” the company’s research notes.
Adjusting bank expectations
Multinational bank Standard Chartered also revised its numbers. Jeffrey Kendrick, head of digital asset research at the agency, said: Adjusted forecasts following recent bearish performance.
“We expect Bitcoin to continue reaching new highs, but at a slower pace than previously expected,” Kendrick said.
The bank was forced to reevaluate its price target in light of recent Bitcoin price fluctuations. That’s down as much as 36% from its all-time high of $126,000 in October last year, which hit $80,000 in November.
Standard Chartered predicts that “Bitcoin will close this year at $100,000, compared to the previous forecast of $200,000.” By 2026, the bank said, “We expect Bitcoin to end the year at $150,000, 50% lower than our previous forecast of $300,000,” reflecting a more cautious but still bullish stance for the long term.