Bitcoin is trading in a “bullish neutral” regime, with limited upside but controlled upward pressure as composite indicators improve and short-term liquidations prevail.
summary
- The composite regime indicator sits at +16.3 in the upper neutral band, a zone that has historically produced positive 30-day returns in the 2025 backtest.
- Short-term liquidations are predominant, and the proportion of long-term liquidations is less than 50%, indicating that forced short covering is the main driver of the current upward pressure.
- A regime score below 0 and a further reversal of clearing advantage to positive would indicate depletion of the current movement and new downside risks.
Bitcoin is trading at around $88,100 with a 24-hour volume of nearly $34.3 billion, reflecting stable liquidity and narrow intraday price ranges on major exchanges. Despite modest price movements over the past day, market depth remains strong, with spot and derivatives flows supporting orderly price discovery.
Bitcoin price is flat
The composite index, which combines taker imbalance, open interest pressure, funding rates, ETF flows, currency flows, and price trends on a scale of -100 to +100, currently stands at +16.3. This places the market in the upper neutral zone, ranging from plus 15 to plus 30.
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According to our analysis, 2025 backtest data shows that this subzone has historically delivered an average return of +3.8% over 30 days. This is in contrast to the -15 to 0 subzone, where the expected return was -1.5% over 7 days. The indicator has recovered from its recent bearish phase, which saw its score drop to -27 a week ago.
The analysis notes that a transition to a formal bullish regime, defined as a score above +30, has historically coincided with regional price highs, with an average seven-day return of -3.3%. This suggests the current positive 15 to positive 30 zone may be a lower risk than higher readings, according to the report.
The Long/Short Liquidation Dominance Oscillator, which measures the difference between long and short liquidation volumes, is currently reading -11%, while its 30-day moving average remains at +10%. Negative values indicate a predominance of closing short positions. The analysis shows that the dominance of long-term liquidations is 44%, which is lower than the baseline of 50%, confirming the prevalence of short-term liquidations.
According to the way the derivatives market works, a preponderance of short liquidations creates upward pressure on prices, as forced liquidation of short positions requires buyers to cover them.
The analysis showed that a return of the regime score below zero, accompanied by a reversal of the liquidation oscillator into positive territory, could indicate that the current upward momentum has been exhausted. Historical data shows that the -15 to 0 subzone had a negative expected return of -1.5% over 7 days.
The analysis characterizes Bitcoin’s current market condition as “bullish-neutral,” with a regime score of +16.3, and the derivatives structure shows an advantage in short-closing that creates buying pressure.
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