Bitcoin (BTC) hit a new high in 2025, but ended the year with a 6% decline. It started at approximately $93,500 (USD) and ended at $87,500. Will the downward trend continue in January 2026? According to history, this is not always the case…
January has historically been a volatile month for Bitcoin prices. It brought both joy and discomfort. However, good news prevailed by a narrow margin during this period for the benefit of investors.
In these 13 years, Bitcoin fell on January 6th, but rose on January 7th.Including the last three, according to Coinglass data. In 2025, it increased by 9.29% in the same month, in 2024 by 0.62%, and in 2023 by an even larger percentage, 39.63% to be exact.
January will be key for Bitcoin’s future in 2026
If the pattern seen in recent years continues, Bitcoin will turn bullish in January 2026. However, another angle of historical analysis suggests the opposite. So it’s a typical post-halving event, where the amount of BTC issued is cut in half every four years.
The year following such an event always marked the end of a bull cycle for Bitcoin, and the following year marked the beginning of a bear market. Given that this movement was repeated in 2025 after the halving in 2024, January could be the start of a new crypto winter.
However, despite previous headwinds, US interest rate cuts are expected to continue this year. This increases liquidity and encourages risk-taking in the market. Bitcoin could benefit.
The growing vision of Bitcoin as a mature custodial asset also means that its adoption is likely to continue to grow in more liquid areas. This means that no matter what happens in January, some companies predict that BTC will hit a new all-time high in 2026, as reported by CriptoNoticias.
In other words, the outlook for the market in January is uncertain. But what is certain is that this month’s direction will be key to differentiating the market mood this new year. 2026 could either push us into a bearish phase or surprise us with a long plateau or reinvigoration of the bullish cycle.