Ethereum is once again attempting to regain the $3,100 level after several days of speculation, hesitation, and mixed signals across the broader crypto market. Although price trends are showing signs of stabilization, confidence remains limited and traders remain cautious as Ethereum remains near a major inflection point. Although the bulls are trying to regain control, the market is still looking for confirmation whether the recent pullback is in full effect.
According to analysis published on CryptoQuant, derivatives data provides important context for this stage of consolidation. Open interest in the entire Ethereum market currently stands at approximately $7.8 billion, with the price trading near $3,100. This positioning is notable because it reflects a balanced environment. Open interest is neither at extreme lows that would indicate a large unwinding of positions, nor at overheated highs that are typically associated with excessive leverage or vulnerability.
Rather, the data suggests that market participants are primarily maintaining existing positions rather than actively exiting trades or entering new trades. This action indicates a compression phase where traders are waiting for a clearer directional catalyst before committing further capital. This situation often precedes a sharp move, as volatility tends to increase when prices break out of consolidation.
Price stability and sustained open interest interaction will be key as Ethereum tests this important level. Whether this balance shifts to a bullish continuation or a new decline will determine Ethereum’s near-term trajectory.
Rising open interest signals Ethereum breakout risk
The report explains that Ethereum’s recent price trends have become increasingly constructive when viewed in conjunction with derivatives data. In the past sessions, the price has trended slightly higher while the open interest has continued to rise. This combination is important. This suggests that new positions are being opened without significantly reducing existing exposure. In reality, market participants are engaged rather than sidelined, and positioning is being built rather than resolved.
At the same time, volatility is starting to expand after a long period of compression. This type of environment often precedes a decisive move as price and positioning shrink into a narrower range. Notably, open interest has now recovered above the SMA(30), SMA(50), and SMA(100) moving averages. This change signals a new willingness to take risks in leveraged markets and confirms that traders are gradually increasing their exposure rather than reacting impulsively.
If Ethereum can continue to sustain above the $3,000 level and open interest rises steadily rather than the sharp rise that typically precedes liquidation, the setup favors a controlled spot-driven advance. Under these conditions, the price could expand towards the $3,700 area, which represents a natural upside target for this structure.
Ethereum appears to be preparing for an imminent breakout. Increased open interest and improving demand make sharp moves increasingly likely. The market will either break above the $3,324 resistance level cleanly or be flushed out by liquidation. The bias remains towards a positive breakout towards $3,700, followed by a revaluation within the broader downtrend.
ETH consolidates at key long-term pivot zone
Ethereum’s price movement on the weekly chart shows that the market is caught between structural support and unresolved bearish pressure. After failing to maintain momentum above the $4,000-$4,200 zone in 2025, ETH entered a broad correction phase that pushed the price back towards the $3,000 area, where it is currently consolidating. This region has become a crucial battleground, acting as a medium-term equilibrium between buyers and sellers.
From a trend perspective, ETH is trading near its long-term moving averages, with the 200-week moving average providing dynamic support in the mid-$2,000s. Being able to sustain above this level suggests that the broader uptrend from the 2022 lows has not yet been invalidated. However, prices remain below declining short-term averages, highlighting that bullish momentum remains weak and the rally continues to face supply.
Structurally, the market has formed a broad consolidation range between approximately $2,700 and $3,400. A sustained hold above $3,100 will keep ETH within the range, but a trend reversal will not be confirmed.
For bulls, regaining and holding the $3,300-$3,400 resistance zone would be the first signal of new strength and a possible path towards higher levels. Until then, Ethereum remains vulnerable to further downside volatility if support near $2,800-$2,700 is reconsidered.
Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com
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