According to weekly price chart data, Bitcoin has witnessed a significant decline of over 6% following the recent massive market liquidation. Notably, the premier cryptocurrency is It took a firm stance the day before, as if to lend credence to rising hopes for some price recovery. However, recent on-chain analysis suggests that Bitcoin’s outward facade of resilience may be just for fun, and that the flagship cryptocurrency may be facing a bleak future.
Bitcoin will enter a 30-day cumulative realized loss phase starting October 2023
In a recent Quicktake post on CryptoQuant, crypto education research group XWIN Research Japan analyzes Bitcoin’s current on-chain situation, with the focus being on Bitcoin’s net realized profit and loss indicator, which shows that the major cryptocurrency has recorded a net realized loss on a 30-day basis for the first time since October 2023.
However, the losses seen in 2023 have recovered rapidly over a short period of time, unlike the current decline, which is broader and more sustained, suggesting a possible structural change in market dynamics. At the moment, investors seem less interested in “buying on the edge” and less interested in “HODLing” through Bitcoin’s price fluctuations, and are more willing to accept losses.
For this reason, it is more plausible to describe the market as being on alert. However, it is worth mentioning that the current stage does not necessarily precede a market crash. Rather, it reflects the possibility that Bitcoin is entering a more volatile phase, independent of the speculative frenzy.
Realized gains suggest late stage of bullish cycle
XWIN Research further strengthens our hypothesis by looking at trends in realized profits. According to market experts, realized profits peaked at around 1.2 million BTC in March 2024 and decreased slightly to 1.1 million BTC in December 2024.
As of July 2025, realized profits have plummeted to 517,000 BTC, reflecting the increasing withdrawal of profit-taking activities within the market. However, this pales in comparison to the low 331,000 BTC recorded in October. The analysis group explained that this contraction occurred despite rising prices, suggesting there was no significant upward momentum.
The group further emphasizes that this is a clear sign of the later stages of the bull market seen in 2021-2022. During this period, realized gains slowly declined before the Bitcoin price turned bearish. More shockingly, the annual period shows a similar picture, with annual net realized profits shrinking from 4.4 million BTC to 2.5 million BTC from October 2025 to early 2026. This is also similar to the stage leading up to the 2022 bear market.
Essentially, Bitcoin is in transition from a mature bull phase to a volatile environment. As of this writing, the price of Bitcoin is $89,462.
Featured images from Pexels, charts from Tradingview
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