Bitcoin prices widened the decline. $BTC It has fallen about 3% in the past 24 hours and about 6.6% in seven days, falling below $90,000 and moving further away from its $100,000 goal.
Still, this decline isn’t breaking new ground. Similar declines have occurred before, where Bitcoin rebounded when key technical conditions met. Once again, the setup hinges on the depletion of momentum and the recovery of the important moving average.
Hidden divergence and EMA recovery define rebound settings
The rebound theory starts with momentum.
On the 12-hour chart, Bitcoin is showing a hidden bullish divergence. From mid-December to late January, $BTC Price formed higher lows and Relative Strength Index (RSI) formed lower lows. RSI measures momentum by comparing recent gains and losses. If the RSI is weakening but the price maintains its structure, it often indicates that selling pressure is waning.
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$BTC”>
hidden divergence $BTC: Trading view
This change in momentum is important because it sets the stage for the next technical trigger: the exponential moving average.
On the daily chart, Bitcoin has recently lost both its 20-day and 50-day exponential moving averages. EMA is a moving average that puts more emphasis on recent prices, which helps you spot trend changes early.
Since June 2025, Bitcoin has followed a clear fractal. Each time the price recovered after a pullback and held the 20-day EMA and 50-day EMA, the price rose sharply.
In late June, it rose 16.9%.
In late September, it was 11.7%.
The delivery rate in early January was 10%.
$BTC price fractal”>
$BTC Price Fractal: TradingView
Even if RSI stabilization leads to a rebound back to the 20-day and 50-day EMAs, the same historical widening range will still apply. From current levels, the move towards $100,000 is mathematically maintained. But do on-chain metrics provide technical support?
Whales are strong, but long-term holders keep prices in check
On-chain data explains why the rebound has not yet begun.
Whale behavior remains constructive. Holds 1,000 to 10,000 addresses $BTC Despite the price pullback, whale numbers have remained flat to slightly up, suggesting that the big players aren’t driving the decline. Therefore, confidence remains.
Whale Support Price: Glassnode
Hodlers are also absorbing supply. Wallets that have held Bitcoin for more than 155 days continue to add coins. Despite the recent decline from January 14th to January 20th, inflows for this group increased by 62%.
Add long-term holders: Glassnode
The pressure is coming from very long-term holders.
Wallets that have held Bitcoin for more than a year are accelerating their sell-off on weakness. The net outflow on January 14 was approximately 25,700 people. $BTC. By January 20, that number had increased to about 68,650. $BTC. This 167% increase in circulation is the main factor preventing prices from rising cleanly.
Super long-term holders still selling: Glassnode
In short, whales and hodlers are supporting the price, while very long-term holders are supplying. $BTC.
Bitcoin price level that determines whether $100,000 is left
This conflict is currently being resolved through price action.
On the upside, Bitcoin needs to regain $94,390 and $96,420. A daily close above these levels would indicate a successful recovery of the EMA and confirm the rebound structure. If that happens, a move toward $100,000 (the $100,240 line) would be about a 12% upside from current levels, well within the historical EMA-driven range mentioned above.
On the downside, $87,830 is important. A sustained break below this level could weaken the RSI divergence and expose deeper support near $84,350. The results will invalidate the rebound theory and confirm that selling by long-term holders continues to prevail.
Bitcoin Price Analysis: TradingView
Bitcoin doesn’t need miracles. We need to confirm the momentum and recover the EMA. It may also require support from very long-term holders. If it continues to sell, the EMA collection live may be delayed.
If they line up, the same fractal that has worked repeatedly since mid-2025 could still point us toward $100,000.
Is there still a chance of $100,000 in Bitcoin? The post “It’s no miracle, but historical fractals say so” appeared first on BeInCrypto.