At 8:30 a.m. ET, U.S. Labor Markets handed traders a bulletin with two timelines, one from today and one from last year.
Nonfarm payrolls increased by 130,000 in January, the unemployment rate remained at 4.3%, and wages continued to rise.
The details came directly from the BLS, a monthly snapshot that informs the market about employment and payroll trends.
Then I scrolled down and the past changed.
The same release included a major revision to the annual benchmark, with March 2025 payrolls revised downward by 898,000 on a seasonally adjusted basis, pushing the overall 2025 trend line lower.
These corrections are important because traders build expectations from the shape of the curve, and the curve has just changed.
That’s where Bitcoin comes in.
Cryptocurrency traders should follow employment statistics. That’s because the jobs report could change the Fed’s schedule overnight. Interest rates shape the price of risk around the world, and Bitcoin is right in the middle of that pressure, especially in a day when markets are revaluing the cost of money.
Today, the first reaction occurred through bonding. Shortly after the announcement, U.S. Treasury yields rose, with the 10-year Treasury yield rising from about 4.15% to about 4.20%, a typical sign that the market is heading toward tightening.
The probability of a rate cut in March, according to CME Fedwatch, has fallen to about 6% from about 22% before the data was released.
Bitcoin followed that pulse, falling about 3% on the day to trade near $66,900, as traders absorbed the subsequent move toward lower interest rates.
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The heart of this story lives in the tension between the morning headlines and the revised year.
Employment remained stable and wages looked solid in January, with the official unemployment rate at 4.3%. The benchmarking process also said the economy would create fewer jobs by 2025 than the first draft suggested, a gap that leaves traders with two pictures in mind at once.
Why does one employment report cause Bitcoin to fluctuate?
Bitcoin’s macro wiring has become clearer over time, and today’s release lays it out in plain English.
Stronger employment data could drive yields higher, and higher yields raise the bar for risk, with Bitcoin often feeling the weight first. While markets hit record highs, yields are rising due to a mix of confidence in growth and caution about interest rates.
Wage is an important factor to pay attention to. Average hourly wages rose 0.4% in January to $37.17, up 3.7% over the past year, a number that continues the conversation about persistent inflation.
When wage growth is strong, markets tend to appreciate the Fed’s continued patience, and that patience often means that fiscal conditions will remain tight for an extended period of time.
At the same time, the benchmark revision invites a second storyline that shows a more benign background beneath the surface.
The BLS revised down March 2025 levels by a seasonally adjusted 898,000 jobs and significantly revised down 2025 net employment growth, changing how investors interpret the past year’s “resilience.”
That’s why rate cut odds are so important to Bitcoin traders, and why it’s wise to monitor the futures market like a second scoreboard. The speed itself is part of the risk, as these odds move quickly after release, with liquidity expectations moving back and forth within hours.
Three paths from here and what each means for BTC
The market moves on a story supported by the following several data points, which today set out three plausible paths.
- One path appears to be upward over time, with employment remaining reasonably stable, wage growth steady, and inflation slowly cooling. In that world, interest rate cuts could be postponed, yields would remain high, and it could be difficult to sustain Bitcoin’s rise as the cost of funds continues to weigh on risk.
- A second path emerges from this revision, with a downshift in 2025 providing the first clues to a broader economic slowdown in future employment, hours and spending. In that world, rate cuts would come back into frame sooner and Bitcoin could find support as the market prices easier conditions.
- The third path lies between them, a soft landing that slowly cools and eventually cuts, with a choppy road in between. That world could still be constructive for Bitcoin, and it can also feel tumultuous, as every major print issue is a debate over timing.
Most important to that discussion are two beats on the short-term calendar.
The next inflation report will be released on Friday, and the next jobs report is scheduled for March 6th.
Barron’s flagged CPI as the next catalyst trader circling, which makes sense given how quickly rate cut odds moved today.
So far, the effects have been as follows: The jobs beat has pushed yields higher, lowered the odds of a rate cut, and sent Bitcoin lower in the first wave of repricing.
Deeper lessons are alive in benchmark revisions. Because revisions change the story people tell about how the economy was, and that story shapes where they think policy will go next.