Ethereum price has fallen over 5% over the past few days and is currently below key short-term structures. February 10th, $ETH The price failed to sustain the narrow rebound channel and fell below $1,980. The move followed a sharp decline in DeFi activity and weakening institutional capital flows. But despite the pressure, large holders started adding again.
The question is simple. I wonder if this is an initial buildup or just a temporary pause before another leg comes down.
Pattern Break Confirms Weak Support for “Big Money”
Ethereum’s recent rally from early February formed inside the bear flag. This structure acted more like a short-term recovery attempt than a trend reversal. On February 10th, as predicted in a previous Ethereum analysis, the price fell below the lower bound of the flag, triggering a pattern break with a potential crash of over 50%.
The move was significant because it occurred amid weak capital flows.
Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) uses price and volume to measure whether capital is flowing into and out of an asset. When the CMF is above zero, we often see large-scale buying by institutional investors. If it remains below that, it indicates weak participation.
From February 6th to February 9th, $ETH Although it bounced back, the CMF never went above zero. It also failed to break out of the downtrend line. This meant that the rebound lacked strong support from large investors.
Activated breakdown structure: TradingView
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Simply put, prices rose, but serious funds did not follow strongly enough. When rebound occurs without the strong support of CMF, it tends to fail. That’s exactly what happened here. Once the buying momentum stalled, sellers regained control and pushed up. $ETH lower.
This confirms that the breaks in the pattern are not random. Perhaps it was helped by large flows of money disappearing. However, technical weaknesses alone do not explain the whole picture.
DeFi TVL and exchange flows reveal structural issues
A deeper problem lurks in Ethereum’s DeFi activities.
Total Value Locked (TVL) measures how much money is held within a decentralized finance platform. This reflects actual usage, capital commitment, and long-term confidence. When TVL rises, users lock up their funds. When it falls, capital flows out.
Analysts at BeInCrypto combined TVL and exchange flow dashboards to show a clear pattern.
As of November 13th, DeFi TVL was $75.6 billion. at the same time, $ETH It traded for approximately $3,232. The exchange’s net position change is significantly negative, indicating that more coins are leaving the exchange than entering it. Investors may have moved $ETH To self-detention.
TVL affects exchange flows and prices: Glassnode
It was a healthy setting.
By December 31, TVL had fallen to approximately $67.4 billion. $ETH It fell to $2,968. Foreign exchange flows turned positive. About 1.5 million $ETH Moved to the exchange. Selling pressure increased. Now, let’s look at February.
TVL history and increasing deal flow: Glassnode
On February 6th, DeFi TVL hit a three-month low of $51.7 billion. $ETH It was nearly $2,060. Foreign exchange outflows weakened sharply (the net position line reached a local peak). Although net flows remained slightly negative, buying pressure collapsed, as explained by the peak on February 6th. This shows a repeating relationship.
A fall in TVL either increases foreign exchange inflows or decreases outflows. This means capital is shifting from long-term use to potential sale.
As of February 10, TVL had only recovered to about $55.5 billion, down about $20 billion from its mid-November level. This remains near a three-month low. Barring a stronger recovery, exchange-side pressure is likely to return. In other words, a pattern break is occurring while Ethereum’s core usage remains depressed.
It’s not just a chart issue, it’s a structural issue.
Explaining Ethereum price support on a whale accumulation and cost basis
Despite weak technicals and a drop in TVL, the whales have not completely retreated.
Track whale supply $ETH It is held in large wallets excluding exchanges. Since February 6, the whale stock has decreased from about 113.91 million individuals. $ETH That’s nearly 113.56 million people. This confirmed the distribution during breakdown. However, in the past 24 hours, this trend has stopped.
Ethereum Whale: Santiment
Holdings slightly recovered from 113.56 million $ETH There is a small increase in the number of people, from 113.62 million to 113.62 million. This suggests that the whale is testing support rather than fully committing.
The reason for this becomes clear when you look at cost-based data.
The cost-based heatmap shows where a large group of investors have purchased their coins. These zones often act as support as holders protect their entry price. For Ethereum, the main cluster is between $1,879 and $1,898. Approximately 1.36 million $ETH accumulated within this range. Therefore, it is a high demand area.
Cost-based heatmap: Glassnode
Current prices are hovering just above this area.
only for $ETH Once it stays above this band, the whale has an incentive to protect it. If the price falls below this, many holders will suffer losses and there is a high possibility that selling will become stronger. This makes for a prudent buy.
Whales aren’t betting on a rally. Perhaps you are protecting an important cost zone.
From here, the price structure of Ethereum becomes clear.
Support is located near $1,960 and then $1,845. If the price closes below $1,845 for the day, a major cost cluster will break down, confirming more serious downside risks. If this happens, the next major downside zones will be around $1,650 and $1,500.
Ethereum Price Analysis: TradingView
On the positive side, $ETH You need to get back $2,150 to stabilize. Only a break above $2,780 could weaken the broader bearish structure. Until then, rebounding remains weak.
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