Bitcoin’s continued price struggle is turning it from a market defined by “bad news” to one defined by the kinds of mechanisms that can maintain a downward trend even when selling seems tired.
According to crypto slate According to the data, BTC price has fallen about 46% from its all-time high near $126,000 in early October 2025, and is trading around $67,470 at the time of writing.
Glassnode explains that the market since October has been a three-stage unwind, with BTC experiencing a rapid decline towards the “true market average” of $79,200, a consolidation by late January, and a decisive collapse that accelerated the move towards the $60,000 area.
Given this, most of the recent buyers of BTC are underwater, and their break-even levels are starting to behave like a ceiling.
In a market built on leverage, momentum, and reflexive flows, that cap can be as important as macro headlines. As the price rises towards the underwater holder’s cost basis, many sell off and sell the whole thing, turning the pullback into a supply event.
Break-even wall, short-term holders underwater
CryptoQuant’s realized price UTXO age band indicates that BTC price is below the realized price band for short-term holders.
This technical term indicates that many of the short-term participants are underwater and the recent decline is primarily driven by the distribution from this cohort.
Glassnode explained the same dynamic from a different angle, noting that profitability for short-term holders “remains negative.” This means that not only are new entrants incurring losses, but their ability to absorb additional volatility is reduced.
As a result, these holders have become reactive, selling at the first sign of strength to limit losses.
That action turns a bounce into a fade. Even if the tape improves for a day, the market may feel heavy.
Essentially, supply is coming not only from bidding by panicked sellers, but also from trapped holders waiting for prices to come back up.
Long-term holders show tension, SOPR decline, increased Binance inflows
An even more important change is that stress is beginning to show up beyond short-term participants.
One of the cleaner on-chain stress gauges is SOPR (spent production return), which tracks whether coins moved on-chain are realized in profits (above 1) or losses (below 1).
For long-term holders, SOPR applies the same concept to older coins (typically coins held for more than 155 days).
CryptoQuant data shows that the SOPR for long-term holders has moved into negative territory.
Although the annual average LTH SOPR is still rising at 1.87, the metric remains below a key threshold of 1 to 0.88, a configuration not seen since the end of the 2023 bear market.
This means that, on average, long-term holders are now realizing losses on sales, and financial stress is gradually accumulating within the group normally treated as a stabilizing basis for the market.
This isn’t exactly the classic “all capitulate” signal. Long-term holders are not monolithic and the coin can move for reasons unrelated to directional fear.
Still, the losses realized due to changes in the old supply change the nature of the drawdown. This suggests that selling pressure is not just coming from companies that came in late to chase the upside and are now exiting.
CryptoQuant flags other behavioral changes that make the signal difficult to ignore.
Binance has seen an increase in capital inflows from long-term holders in recent weeks, despite the rising percentage of realized losses.
Binance is one of the most liquid places on the market. When large holders need options, they tend to move their coins to venues that can accommodate their size, whether to sell, hedge, or restructure their exposure.
In that context, increased inflows from long-term holders can be interpreted as increasing sell-side pressure, even if it has never manifested as a liquidation date yet.
Major buyers remain active, but near-term demand is losing momentum
Even with this setting, BTC purchase activity does not disappear.
However, on-chain data shows the market is split between stable accumulators and short-term cohorts that are losing momentum.
Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) reported that it added 2,486 Bitcoin from February 9th to February 16th, bringing its holdings to over 717,000 BTC.
The significance of this acquisition lies not just in the headlines, but in the type of demand it represents.
This represents spot buying from visible institutional investors, creating a bid that allows traders to price in their expectations, even if they disagree on how long it will last.
CryptoQuant data shows a similar pattern among whales, with whales increasing their holdings despite increased inflows to exchanges.
According to the company, the supply of BTC held by whales has increased by 200,000 BTC in the last month to more than 3.1 million BTC.
The last time the market saw a move of this size was during the April 2025 correction, when buying by large holders likely absorbed selling pressure and supported the rally that took Bitcoin from $76,000 to $126,000.
However, this accumulation is unfolding as short-term demand for BTC cools.
Alpharaktal data shows that short-term holders are not adding BTC at the same pace as they were 90 days ago.
The company reported that while the change in short-term holders’ net position over a 90-day period remains positive, it has declined rapidly in recent days.
This means short-term holders are still accumulating, but at a slower pace than in previous periods.
This movement often precedes a consolidation, increased volatility, or regime change, as the cohort most likely to chase upside becomes less aggressive.
What supports stabilization and what suggests a serious downside?
In summary, the most defensible interpretation of the current convergence is that Bitcoin is caught between the breakeven wall above and the structural cost floor below.
This wall is formed by short-term underwater holders and an overhead supply cluster that turns a bull market into a sell zone, as shown by CryptoQuant’s realized price range.
Therefore, BTC’s next move will depend not on whether one whale buys print, but whether liquidity conditions and collective behavior start to change.
If Bitcoin can regain the price range achieved by short-term holders and sustain trading above that price range, there will be less incentive for trapped sellers to take advantage of any bull market.
This would also suggest that the market is rebuilding its base of acquiring new supply at prices that do not immediately create overhead resistance.
However, if prices are unable to recover these short-term cost bands and stress among long-term holders continues to accumulate, the drawdown risk is further strengthened.
This combination could put pressure on the market and push the price of the top cryptocurrency further down.