Bitcoin (BTC) is still trading between $60,000 and $70,000 (USD), about 48% below its all-time high reached on October 6, 2025, but there are growing expectations for further declines this year.
“Everyone is waiting for $40,000 in Bitcoin,” a trader known as Recto Fencer commented from his vision on February 24, 2026. According to his analysis, Bitcoin’s current decline is a repeat of the pattern that occurred in May 2022 During the last bear cycle.
At that time, prices were in a period of flattening after falling sharply, and then falling to lower levels. In this sense, the sideways phase that Bitcoin has exhibited over the past three weeks can be considered as a downward break. This is illustrated by the analyst in the following graph.
Still, Recto Fencer recalled: In 2022, “many bassists “They tried to buy low and missed the bottom.”. For him, there is a “lesson” in this cycle. The key is to not try to enter by guessing the bottom price.
His comments come amid growing predictions of a bottom for Bitcoin this year. The Polymarket prediction platform shows that the highest stakes (both for and against) will fall from $45,000, while Karshi will drop to $44,000.
Bitcoin’s historical cycle repeats
Echoing this, Nick O’Neill, co-founder of market, entertainment and education company Bodogos, said on February 22nd: Technical analysis is becoming established Along with his bearish thesis. According to his vision, “$40,000 could arrive” by the end of March.
During the discussion, he also noted that the Fear and Greed Index has fallen to 5, the lowest level since the FTX bankruptcy. “And all the analysts I surveyed point to the same alarming conclusion: this is a repeating four-year cycle,” he added.
This kind of cycle means that Bitcoin It is always recognized that the end of a long bull period is reached the year after the halving, followed by a bear market.. The latest edition of this event, which halved the amount of BTC issued every four years, was in 2024.
“Macro theory hasn’t changed the pattern,” O’Neill emphasized. He added, “We have not yet reached a complete surrender, so there is a possibility that it will fall further.” In his opinion, the only question is whether the 200-week moving average, located at $58,000, can hold as it otherwise would. Given the current bearish outlook, “frankly, this is going to break his heart,” he said.
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James Ford, an economist and director of the investment group Pragmatic Investors, had previously raised a similar assessment. In a report on February 6, when Bitcoin hit $60,000, its lowest level in over a year, he believed that if it follows past patterns, Bitcoin could fall even lower.
During the last bear markets in 2022 and 2019, BTC prices fell by 84% and 77%, respectively, suggesting that the decline is becoming smaller and smaller. If this move repeats, prices could fall by about 75% from their all-time high before stopping. That would be $31,000.
However, Mr. Ford thought it wise not to try to pinpoint the exact bottom of the bear market. Instead, he proposed a dollar-cost averaging (DCA) strategy, which averages out acquisition costs by making regular purchases.
This approach is useful In addition to the current zone, you also allocate capital to $57,000 and $40,000.a level that acts as a support. The economist suggested splitting the investment funds into 20%, 30% and 50% and deploying them at each level or after a technical reversal is confirmed.
In any case, he cautioned that this approach also comes with risks, especially in the current environment. “We are entering an unprecedented geopolitical era,” he said, predicting that markets could face greater pressure.
But he argued that unlike previous cycles, “Bitcoin has a much better position, with institutional investors and even governments investing.” So it’s bullish for the long term. His thesis is based on the influx of institutional investment and the enduring scarcity of Bitcoin.
This view comes as Bitcoin’s decline shows correlation with the technology sector in the face of macroeconomic uncertainty. This is largely due to the tariffs that Donald Trump implemented despite adverse court rulings.