Talk of a possible altcoin season this cycle has subsided compared to previous years, despite recent developments. Bitcoin (BTC) price decline and control. Notably, a cryptocurrency analyst has shared a new long-term chart showing that altcoin market capitalization relative to Bitcoin is at levels that historically precede major altseasons. Based on his analysis, the alternative market could be ready for a complete reset. Fresh altcoin season When past trends unfold as expected.
Bitcoin ratio reaches base zone, forming historic alternative season setup
Recent analysis on X by market expert @CyrilXBT. share A monthly chart that tracks the ratio of the entire cryptocurrency market to Bitcoin, excluding the top 10 assets. According to our analysis, the chart currently sits at around 0.129, a level that analysts describe as the same base or accumulation zone that started the major altcoin seasons in crypto history.
@CyrilXBT pointed out that this zone is where all alt seasons are born and their respective pasts. altcoin rally It started when the ratio stopped declining and stabilized around the $0.12 to $0.13 range. Looking at the chart, the analyst noted that during the 2015-2016 cycle, this ratio started near zero and remained flat with minimal volatility. This was followed by a dramatic spike in 2017-2018 Bull Runthe altcoin-to-bitcoin ratio exceeded 0.3, marking one of the first major alt seasons.
By 2020, the ratio had crashed below the 0.129 level, consolidating around the lower accumulation/reference zone, wiping out most of the gains. especially, 2021 recorded the biggest spike in altcoin season Historically, this ratio has skyrocketed to above 0.55 during bull market frenzy. During this period, trading volumes hit record highs and the bar exceeded the previous year.
New alt season conditions take shape
Similar to the 2020 crash, the 2022-2024 cycle also saw a post-peak correction, with the ratio trending downward. Bitcoin regains dominance. In the current 2025-2026 cycle, the altcoin-to-Bitcoin ratio finally returned to the historically significant 0.129 accumulation zone, pushing BTC.D higher. drop down This was the lowest rate for the year at 57.9%.
@CyrilXBT suggested that the current positioning reflects the pre-altseason setup that caused the massive altcoin explosion over the past few years. He noted that the uptrend line connecting successive altcoin season peaks on the chart points to a ratio of approximately 0.80 to 0.90 as the next potential target for this cycle.
As ratios stabilize and historical trends repeat, @CyrilXBT argues that recent market performance is not indicative of that. altcoins are dead. Rather, this indicates that the market may be completely reset and quietly starting to create. Next Alternative Season Conditions.
Featured image created by Dall.E, chart on Tradingview.com
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