Bitcoin just recorded its first green weekly candlestick after five consecutive red weeks. The move marks a notable recovery from a long period of stagnation. Several analysts are conducting further research.
They predict that the bear market will end in February and that a more positive phase may have already begun.
After months of massive capital outflows from the market, new positive signals have emerged. These signals reinforce that scenario.
Why the 23-month Bitcoin cycle theory?
A recent analysis by an experienced trader has caught the attention of crypto investors.
Analysis shows that Bitcoin typically bottoms just 23 months after hitting an all-time high ($ATH) in each cycle.
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$ATH hits the bottom of the bear market. Source: Coinvo Trading”>
several months since $ATH To the bottom of the bear market. Source: Coinvo Trading
The market has now reached exactly the 23-month mark since its most recent transaction. $ATH. This timing is perfectly consistent with the previous cycle pattern.
“Bitcoin hit the bottom of its bear market just 23 months into the market. $ATH In every cycle. He is currently 23 months old. This has never failed,” says Coinvo Trading.
Veteran trader Peter Brandt said this observation is a stronger argument than many other market narratives. This pattern suggests that the bear market may end in February. It also suggests a recovery could begin as early as next month.
Yesterday, the total market capitalization recovered by 6%. It increased from $2.19 trillion to $2.32 trillion. This recovery reflects growing investor optimism. With the price of Bitcoin and altcoins plummeting, many are seeing an opportunity.
Additionally, searches for “buy Bitcoin” have reached their highest level since 2021, according to Google Trends data. This trend signals the arrival of new investors.
Bottom signal?
‘Buy Bitcoin’ at highest level not seen since 2021 pic.twitter.com/8FIdav5slU
— Lark Davis (@LarkDavis) February 26, 2026
However, other analysts believe this scenario is premature. They believe the market will need at least another six months for a sustainable recovery. They base this view on historical on-chain data models.
Furthermore, net stablecoin inflows to exchanges remained negative in the last week of February. This data could weaken the case for a 23-month bear market.
Leon Weidman, head of research at Risk Inc., explained that stablecoin flows indicate that more coins are leaving exchanges than coming into them. This trend indicates that there is still insufficient buying pressure to support Bitcoin’s sustained rally.
“Look at the chart. All major $BTC The rally over the past year was fueled by a large amount of green bars (stablecoin inflows). now? Deep red. Net outflows are almost -$10 billion. $BTC You won’t be able to get any sustained bids until this is reversed. It’s that simple,” Leon Weidman said.
Stablecoins: Exchange net position changes. Source: Glassnode
The market has rebounded after weeks of decline, but may need clearer confirmation before declaring the bear market over. BeInCrypto’s recent analysis identifies the $70,000 level as an important threshold in the current situation. Bitcoin needs to regain and maintain this level if it is to continue rising further.
The article “Bitcoin turns green weekly as 23-month cycle call spreads – and skeptics rally” was first published on BeInCrypto.