$ARK In a joint report, Invest and Unchained shared a notable assessment of Bitcoin’s long-term risks due to quantum computing.
Approximately 34.6% of the Bitcoin supply in circulation is at long-term risk in the face of potential major breakthroughs in quantum computing, according to the report. In contrast, 65.4% of the current supply is currently considered relatively safe.
The study argues that while quantum threats do not pose an immediate danger to Bitcoin, they are important issues that need to be closely monitored and prepared for over the long term.
The report states that current quantum computers are far from capable of breaking the elliptic curve cryptography used in Bitcoin. Researchers say the existing system, called NISQ, is still in its infancy and would require thousands of logical qubits and much more powerful error-correcting processing power to reach a level that could threaten Bitcoin’s cryptographic infrastructure. therefore, $ARK Invest and Unchained argue that quantum risk should be considered as a gradual process that can unfold over years or even decades, rather than a sudden “Q-day” scenario.
According to the report, the majority of Bitcoin supply is vulnerable to quantum threats and resides in legacy address types. Approximately 1.7 million $BTC It is estimated that it resides in an old P2PK address and is largely gone. In addition, approximately 5.2 million $BTC It can be found in reused addresses or other address types such as portable Taproot addresses that can theoretically be transferred to a more secure address. Therefore, approximately 35% of the supply is considered vulnerable to quantum risk, and 65.4% (equivalent to approximately 13 million units) $BTCis considered more resilient in the current situation.
One of the notable topics in this study was the BIP-360 proposal discussed within the Bitcoin community. This proposal aims to reduce the quantum sensitivity on the key path side of Taproot and mitigate these risks with a new output type called “Pay-to-Merkle-Root”. According to the report, BIP-360 stands out as an important step toward increasing quantum resilience while preserving Taproot’s functionality. However, the authors note that integrating post-quantum cryptography into the Bitcoin network will be a difficult process both technically and governance-wise.
$ARK Invest and Unchained also added that the Bitcoin ecosystem has already begun preparing for quantum threats. They noted that Coinbase has established a quantum computing advisory board, the Ethereum Foundation has established a dedicated team for post-quantum readiness, and Strategy is preparing to launch a Bitcoin security program. However, the report states that there is still no clear consensus on which post-quantum solution should be prioritized for Bitcoin, and the question of whether to freeze older coins that are at risk could spark serious debate in the future.
The report also considers three different scenarios. The pessimistic scenario predicts an unexpectedly rapid breakthrough in the quantum field, $BTC On the other hand, an optimistic scenario foresees a slowdown in quantum development and a transition to more mature and tested solutions for Bitcoin. The most likely balanced scenario suggests that it could be 10 to 20 years before quantum computers become a real threat. $BTCgiving Bitcoin developers enough time to mature and implement post-quantum solutions.
*This is not investment advice.