ARK Invest, Cathie Wood’s company and one of the most relevant investment managers in the crypto ecosystem, published a report on March 11th titled “Bitcoin and Quantum Computing” in which it concluded that in the most likely scenario, it would be “10 to 20 years” before a quantum computer capable of threatening Bitcoin cryptography emerges.
The report, produced in collaboration with custodian Unchained, analyzes the current state of quantum computing, the distribution of Bitcoin (BTC) supply across different types of addresses depending on their cryptographic vulnerabilities, which actors have access to advanced quantum computers, and what protection mechanisms currently exist for Bitcoin.
Based on this framework, ARK concludes that this threat should not be understood as a single catastrophic event, a so-called “disaster.” “Q-day”Shino as a step-by-step multi-step processeach has a different impact and a different time frame for the Bitcoin community to act.
To structure this process, ARK suggests five stages.
- at stage 0Quantum computers now exist, but they are not commercially viable and do not represent a threat to Bitcoin.
- In stage 1useful for applications such as chemistry and materials simulation, but lacks encryption capabilities.
- In stage 2While weak or outdated cryptographic systems can be broken, Bitcoin’s cryptographic system cannot be broken..
- At stage 3Quantum computers will be able to crack the elliptic curve cryptography (ECC) that protects Bitcoin keys, albeit slowly, putting vulnerable addresses at risk.
- At stage 4In the most critical scenarios, this breach occurs within minutes and threatens even users who follow good security practices.
ARK researchers established that “in line with the institutional consensus of Google, IBM, Microsoft, and the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST)”: The arrival of Stage 3 will occur within “10 to 20 years”. According to ARK, this period is sufficient for Bitcoin to adopt protection solutions if the community acts early.
Bitcoin coin with current quantum vulnerability
Central to ARK’s analysis is the distribution of Bitcoin supply in the face of potential quantum attacks.
It was created using data from Unchained and Project Eleven, which is 65.4% of the total supply, as seen in the following graph excerpted from the report. Approximately 13 million BTC (approximately USD 990 billion) in non-vulnerable addresses (green).
The remaining 25% (yellow), approximately 5 million BTC, is in vulnerable addresses However, it can be migrated to a secure format.. 8.6% (red) (equivalent to 1.7 million BTC) corresponds to the oldest form of Bitcoin, Payment to Public Key (P2PK) type addresses, which are considered lost and non-portable, and therefore the most likely targets of future quantum attacks. Another 1%, approximately 200,000 BTC, is vulnerable to address reuse but is transferable.
In the face of this situation, the ARK team points out that protection already exists from a technical perspective. Post-quantum cryptography (PQC), an algorithm designed to counter attacks from quantum computers, is being integrated into the global internet infrastructure, and two schemes have already been standardized by NIST in 2024.
Regarding Bitcoin in particular, ARK mentions the BIP-360 proposal, which aims to implement addresses on the network that are resistant to quantum attacks.
BIP-360 is already published in the Bitcoin Improvement Proposals (BIP) repository and is intended to bring addresses implemented in the Taproot update to the latest format for Bitcoin. Quantum computing resistantmaintain current functionality.
In practice, that means: Users can transfer funds to that new address format There is no need to change the fundamental structure of protocols before quantum threats materialize.
However, the report warns that there is still no consensus on the PQC’s proposals and that Bitcoin’s decentralized governance, and therefore its resistance to change, is by design. Its greatest strength and main obstacle In order to implement the solution in time.
Opinions within the ecosystem are divided
ARK’s 10-20 year prediction is not universal in the ecosystem, and the Bitcoiner community is divided between FUD and reality.
For example, Charles Edwards, CEO of asset management company Capriol, believes Bitcoin should be protected. Countering quantum threats by 2028the period is significantly shorter.
Along the same lines, as reported by CriptoNoticias, Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin estimates that the threats to ECDSA encryption (the digital signature system that secures both Bitcoin and Ethereum, as well as other networks) are: It could arrive in 2028.
Adam Back, co-founder of Blockstream and one of the most influential figures in the Bitcoin ecosystem, also shares ARK’s vision. According to Buck, quantum risk is “Another 10 or 20 years.”adjust its position to suit the report’s balanced scenario.
The distance between these positions reflects the same tensions that ARK identifies as real problems. In other words, it is not a quantum threat per se. But consensus on when and how to act is difficult.