Long-term price outlook for Ethereum: Will tokenization increase the price?

Ethereum’s on-chain fundamentals are improving at a pace not seen in previous cycles. Institutional capital is accumulating on the network, whale wallets are expanding, and foreign exchange reserves are decreasing. But the price tells a different story. $ETH is down more than 50% from its 2025 high, and the weekly chart structure remains bearish.

The question is whether institutional blockchain activity can ultimately drive prices higher, or if there is no market reward, it remains a story.

Traditional Finance (TradFi) is choosing Ethereum

Major financial institutions are accelerating their entry into blockchain. Its involvement extends to storage, settlement, and payment.

But the most measurable form of this change is tokenization. Tokenization represents financial instruments such as Treasury bills, bonds, and money market funds as digital tokens on a public blockchain.

The most high-profile category of tokenization is that of real-world assets, commonly known as RWA.

Jeff Kendrick, Global Head of Digital Asset Research at Standard Chartered, said at the BeInCrypto Expert Council meeting:

“I think Ethereum will probably win for some time to come on the back of TradFi’s involvement. Almost everything will be done on Ethereum for the next few years as banks and other companies build things on the blockchain space,” he said.

The data backs that up. According to RWA.xyz, Ethereum’s decentralized tokenized asset value increased from $1.22 billion in March 2024 to $15.26 billion by March 2026, an increase of 1,150%.

RWA Growth: RWA.XYZ

The network holds 57% of the entire blockchain’s tokenized assets and has generated $10.3 billion in net capital inflows over the past year. In contrast, Solana recorded overall net outflows of $41 billion during the same period.

Ethereum network asset value: RWA.XYZ

The clearest evidence of institutional investor commitment came when BlackRock launched BUIDL, a tokenized U.S. Treasury money market fund.

Built on Ethereum through Securitize, a digital asset securities platform, it has grown from $100 million at launch in March 2024 to $2 billion in March 2026. In Ethereum alone, BUIDL has over $780 million in assets under management.

See also  ETH targets $4,000.

Project on Ethereum: RWA.XYZ

Available to trade on Uniswap in February 2026.

Ondo USDY, a tokenized yield product, grew from $36 million to $587 million over the same period.

Traditional asset managers such as WisdomTree, Janus Henderson, and China AMC have also launched tokenized funds on Ethereum, with each currently holding between $500 million and $730 million in assets. These products didn’t exist on the network two years ago.

The institutional infrastructure is clearly expanding. The next question is whether that activity manifests itself in network-level demand.

On-chain signals indicate quiet accumulation

Despite the price slump, on-chain data reveals aggressive positioning by large holders after the tokenization boom.

Since March 2024 (BUIDL’s entry), whale wallets (supply held by whales, excluding exchange holdings) have increased from 93.24 million. $ETH Up to 120.42 million people $ETHan increase of 29%.

Since November 2025, the accumulation has become more aggressive, adding approximately 20 million whales $ETH over the next four months.

within the same window, $ETH According to Glassnode, the number of trades on the exchange decreased by 23% from 18.76 million to 14.39 million.

Continued decline indicates holders are starting to move $ETH Rather than preparing it for sale, store it in cold storage or staking.

Exchange balance: Glassnode

The gap between the two numbers reveals the redistribution. Whales absorbed about 27 million pieces $ETH Meanwhile, only 4.4 million people remained on the exchange.

Much of the accumulation has come from small holders selling to large buyers, a supply transfer pattern that typically precedes large price movements.

Matt Hogan, chief investment officer at Bitwise Asset Management, says there are structural reasons why this accumulation is likely to continue.

“My final view is that blockchain’s permissionless, open architecture wins,” said Bitwise’s Matt Hogan.

Ethereum’s permissionless design truly sets it apart from private blockchain alternatives and continues to attract organization builders and capital to the network.

Organized activity on the Ethereum mainnet also has a direct impact on the Ethereum supply mechanism.

Ethereum’s EIP-1559 upgrade will destroy a portion of all mainnet transaction fees, reducing circulating supply.

Since the Dencun upgrade, most activity has moved to the Layer 2 network and $ETHThe inflation rate is approximately 0.75% per Glassnode.

Tokenized products like BUIDL anchor directly on Ethereum’s mainnet (verifiable on Etherscan), generating the type of high-value trading activity that can drive up burn rates and tighten supply.

When supply becomes tight relative to steady or increasing demand, prices will follow.

The foundations are being laid. But if you look at the weekly price chart, you can see why it hasn’t affected the price yet.

Weekly Ethereum price chart structure remains bearish

In a weekly time frame, $ETH From April to November 2025, the cup and handle formed a reversed pattern. The descending trend lines on the cup rim and handle share an upward neckline, making this breakdown even more impactful.

This breakdown was announced on January 19, 2026. Based on the cup’s vertical distance of about 56%, the measured move predicts a downside target near $1,290.

$ETH It is currently trading around $2,100, below its 50-week and 200-week exponential moving averages (EMAs).

Exponential moving averages are trend-following indicators that give more weight to recent price data. Trading below both weekly EMAs confirms that medium-term momentum has turned negative.

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However, the monthly time frame provides a counterargument to that. From early 2024 onwards, $ETH It traded within an ascending channel. Price has recently rebounded from the lower trend line and is holding onto a broader structure.

This suggests that the expected weekly decline is not a structural collapse, but more of a retest of long-term support, or rather a “bottom hunt.”

The weekly magazine warns of further decline. The monthly chart says that the foundation is on the floor. The next step is to identify where these levels cluster.

where can i do it $ETH Price bottom form?

Downside levels are clearly defined using trend-based Fibonacci extensions, which predict price targets by measuring the proportional distance between previous swing points. This extension lasts from the August 2025 high to the November low and then to the December rebound.

$ETH It recently broke below the 0.618 Fibonacci level at $2,020, one of the strongest weekly supports below.

The next support will be at $1,630. Below that, $1,380 marks the April 2025 cycle low and $1,290 matches the inverted cup-and-handle target. If the selloff widens further, the full 1.0 extension at $1,120 represents the worst-case floor.

To recover, Ethereum price would need to regain $2,570, then $2,920, and finally $3,470. The weekly structure changes from bearish to neutral only on a break above $3,470.

A close above $4,970 would signal a full-cycle breakout.

The bottom formation is where tokenization may eventually start to translate into price.

Kendrick of Standard Chartered made this clear:

“Ultimately, over the next few years, Ethereum should capture flows from TradFi and outperform in token price,” he said.

On-chain trajectory supports that view. First we need to find the price floor.

Ethereum has $15 billion in tokenized assets, with whale accumulation at a multi-year high and exchange supply at a two-year low. The infrastructure is ready. What is missing is a macrocatalyst.

The Fed is keeping interest rates at 3.5% to 3.75%, with a rate cut expected in the second half of 2026. $ETH Staking and locking process $ETH The current rate of return is more than 3% as we secure the network in exchange for yield. US Treasury yields are hovering around 4.2%.

When interest rates are cut and the gap narrows (reducing government bond yields), financial institutions that are already using Ethereum for tokenization will have a second incentive to hold. $ETH: Competitive yields alongside access to infrastructure.

Additionally, an increase in the amount of tokenization may increase the burn rate and gradually reverse it. $ETHmoderate inflation and a restoration of the deflationary dynamics that have historically supported prices.

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