Citigroup lowers Bitcoin, Ethereum targets as US policy schedule delays reduce upside room
Citigroup lowered its 12-month targets for Bitcoin and Ethereum, cutting its Bitcoin forecast from $143,000 to $112,000 and Ethereum forecast from $4,304 to $3,175.
The March 17 revision marks a significant retreat from the bank’s December view and marks a reset in its relationship with slowing U.S. legislative progress, which Citi said is weighing on the policy support it had hoped would boost demand for ETFs and increase their adoption.
This reduction is large enough to change the shape of Citi’s crypto outlook for the year without turning bearish on the two assets.
Bitcoin’s new target is about 21.7% lower than Citi’s prior forecast, and Ethereum’s new target is about 26.2% lower than its previous call. Both new targets are still above current market prices.
Based on the latest cryptoprune numbers, Citi’s revised Bitcoin target suggests an upside of approximately 51.8% from spot, while its revised Ether target suggests an upside of approximately 36.8%.
Citi still expects Bitcoin and Ethereum to rally over the next year. However, the bank significantly lowered the limits for both assets as it no longer expects regulatory developments, institutional investor demand and network follow-through to move at the same pace that formed its December forecast.
For a market that has already rallied in recent weeks, the downgrade is less a call for immediate decline and more a warning that the path to upside may be slower and narrower than previously assumed in the bullish case.
That warning holds true, as both assets have recently made gains. Bitcoin is trading at around $74,000, up 4.5% in 7 days and 7.5% in 30 days. Ethereum is hovering around $2,300, up 12% in 7 days and 15% in 30 days.
The downgrade comes as the market tactically recovers despite one of Wall Street’s biggest banks lowering its forecast for the year ahead.
Citi’s new targets remain high, but the one-year scope has narrowed
Citi’s revised version follows more upbeat target settings published in December. At that time, the bank set a 12-month Bitcoin target of $143,000 and a 12-month Ether target of $4,304, while its December report outlined a Bitcoin bull case of $189,000 and an Ethereum bull case of $5,132.
Previous views tilted toward deregulation and increased adoption. The new view preserves the basic upside case, but resets it to the downside as the policy timeline does not advance as quickly as the City expected.
As a matter of fact, the central bank has said the market could still rise into next year, but the fuel it expected to push prices up significantly hasn’t arrived on time. This is a narrower and more measured claim than the one Citi made late last year. It also shifts the focus from pure price prediction to the mechanisms behind the prediction.
Citi’s December case relied on regulation, ETF demand, and adoption, which were mutually reinforcing. The March revision suggests that this order now appears less certain and less immediate.
The numbers clearly show that.
| assets | Goals for the past 12 months | New 12 month goals | target cut | current price | Implied upside to new targets | 7 days travel | 30 days travel |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin | $143,000 | $112,000 | 21.7% | $73,777.10 | 51.8% | 4.55% | 7.51% |
| Ethereum | $4,304 | $3,175 | 26.2% | $2,320.12 | 36.8% | 12.7% | 15.38% |
This table captures the central contradiction in the City’s revisions. While the price of Ethereum in particular has improved over the past week and month, Citi is still lowering its one-year target. This suggests the central bank has doubts about whether the forces needed to maintain large-scale policy will be strong enough to restore the outlook for December.
This is particularly relevant to Ethereum. In the latest market snapshot, Ethereum outperformed Bitcoin in both the 7-day and 30-day period. Still, Citi lowered its target for Ethereum by a larger percentage than for Bitcoin, taking a more cautious view of ETH’s medium-term case than the short-term price movement alone suggests. In other words, the recent strength is not enough to offset Citi’s concerns about implementation, policy timing, and the broader demand backdrop.
In the case of Bitcoin, the changes are a little different. Citi still sees more than 50% upside potential from current levels, meaning the bank is not rejecting its broader institutional claims for BTC. However, the reduction in the target amount from $143,000 to $112,000 sheds light on how far the case could spread over the next year under current circumstances.
As such, Bitcoin’s upside profile, while still positive, will be less expansive and will rely more on steady capital inflows than rapid policy tailwinds.
ETF flows and market performance show support still exists, but Citi looks beyond rebound
According to Farside, the Spot Bitcoin ETF recorded net inflows of $199 million on March 16, bringing total net inflows to $56.3 billion. The Spot Ethereum ETF recorded net inflows of $36 million, bringing total net inflows to $11.8 billion.
These numbers show that real demand still exists. But they also help explain why Citi’s revisions are more nuanced than a simple bearish call. The question is whether the current pace of capital flows and slower policy schedules are strong enough to support the much loftier targets Citi set in December. The bank’s answer to this question currently appears to be “no.”
If you look at the stories from December and March side by side, it becomes easier to see the changes. In December, Citi announced a goal of deregulation and widespread adoption.
The March 17 report said it lowered similar targets in March due to slower-than-expected progress on U.S. legislation. The fundamental change is not that cryptocurrency prices have stopped moving. Citi said the policy and demand sequences it expected to fuel the movement weren’t coming together quickly enough.
Therefore, the market is in an unusual situation. Bitcoin and Ethereum have both rebounded in recent weeks. ETF money is still flowing in, but the big banks have decided that the one-year payoff should be cut anyway.
A gap between price performance and target revision is a more useful signal. The market could rise in the short term without convincing all the major forecasters that the long-term situation has improved to the same extent, the report said.
It also explains why Citi’s downgrade doesn’t seem like a call in everyday trading. The bank has lowered its 12-month target and does not foresee a near-term crash. That distinction is important. The goal is about the size of the price movement over time, not whether the price can continue to rise over the next few sessions or even weeks.
By that standard, City’s message is simple and clear. The market could still rise, but there is less room to outperform spot than the bank thought a few months ago.
The next test is whether policies and flows can rebuild the case that City has reduced.
The main variable in Citi’s reset is Washington. In January, Senate Banking Committee Chairman Tim Scott announced a price increase for the digital asset market structure on January 15th, but postponed it to January 14th to continue negotiations, according to a statement and follow-up from the Senate Banking Committee. Senators are still working to lift the stalled CLARITY Act through a compromise related to stablecoin yields.
This timeline shapes Citi’s reset because it is the most obvious reason for the bank to lower its targets. A slower policy trajectory slows legislation and weakens confidence that a ruleset friendly enough to accelerate ETF demand, corporate participation, and other forms of institutional adoption will emerge soon within the next year.
This mechanism is concrete. If a policy step is delayed, the implementation step may shift accordingly, making it difficult to meet the price targets associated with that implementation.
The next question for Bitcoin is whether spot ETF inflows can continue to grow without a cleaner legal backdrop. If that’s possible, City’s new goals could still prove conservative. If inflows level off or lose momentum, banks may appear to be cutting rates sooner rather than later.
The same structure applies to Ethereum, but the margin of error is more severe. Ethereum’s recent rally was stronger, but Citi’s target reduction was deeper. This means that ETH not only needs continued price support, but also stronger evidence that usage and institutional demand can justify a one-year cap increase.
Nothing requires a dramatic break in either direction. The data already at hand point to a narrower and more conditional setting. Citi still sees upside from current prices. ETF flows remain positive. Bitcoin and Ethereum have both risen in the last month. But the one-year case now depends largely on whether policy negotiations start to bear fruit and whether flows remain strong enough to make up for the optimism Citi took away from its December outlook.
The coming months should tell us whether that caution is warranted. Legislative breakthroughs, stronger ETF inflows, and more robust adoption data could rebuild the case for higher goals.
Further delays in Washington, slower flows, or weaker follow-through due to the recent market rally would support Citi’s decision to lower the bar.
For now, Citi’s revisions leave cryptocurrencies with a realistic situation with diminished upside potential, and a clear test of whether policy and demand can keep up with already volatile prices.