Historically, past Bitcoin cycles have had similarities in terms of both bull and bear markets. A lot of this has to do with the rate at which prices rise and the rate at which prices begin to crash. Unsurprisingly, there are growing expectations that Bitcoin prices will follow the previous cycle, leading to calls for a sharp drop in price. But could there be a deviation this time?
Bitcoin will crash again, but by how much?
Analyst Krypto Patel highlighted the history of Bitcoin’s price performance over the past few cycles and how that is reflected in the current cycle. Over the years, Bitcoin bear markets have often seen the digital asset crash by an average of 80%, suggesting that could happen again this time.
Following this same trend, analysts explain that a 77% crash this cycle would take BTC price to around $32,000. However, Krypto Patel does not think that is possible and believes that Bitcoin prices will never fall this low.
Now, after the third wave, prices usually crash, and prices often head towards new lows. This means there is still a crash left before Bitcoin hits the bottom. The question is how far prices can be lowered.
Crypto analysts believe that Bitcoin price will not fall below $40,000 this cycle, rather than plummeting 77% to $32,000. This essentially means no less than 70%. Rather, the $40,000 to $50,000 level is expected to be the biggest pain point for investors.
Continuing 4 year cycle
Despite the divergence that occurred in 2024, when Bitcoin prices reached all-time highs before the halving, parts of the four-year cycle appear to be following the trend. As @ArdiNSC points out in X, new 4-year cycles always reach the top.
2013, then 2017, before 2021, and finally 2017, each time with a difference of almost four years. Considering this, at least part of the four-year cycle may still be in play. In such a case, the BTC price may continue to decline, as historically the BTC price bottomed out the year before the halving.
This means BTC has just entered a bear market, lending credence to Krypto Patel’s prediction that another big crash is coming. If this same four-year cycle holds, Bitcoin price could reach a new all-time high between 2028 and 2029.
Featured image from Dall.E, chart from TradingView.com
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