Bitcoin price has been on a steady recovery journey over the past few weeks, with several attempts to breach the $74,000 level consistently. However, this premier cryptocurrency still appears to be getting lost in the noise of ongoing geopolitical tensions between the US, Israel, and Iran.
The Middle East conflict has become a major topic of discussion in global financial markets, with commentary on the US midterm elections taking a backseat in recent weeks. Here we take a look at how the US midterm elections are likely to impact Bitcoin’s price performance in the coming months.
BTC movement during midterm elections is historically weak
In a new Quicktake post on its CryptoQuant platform, XWIN Research delves into the prospects of BTC, the world’s largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, in the current US political climate. The firm analyzed historical performance in midterm election years and found that market leaders typically become less active during this period.
According to XWIN Research, this bearish pattern is due to increased uncertainty and reduced risk appetite in the US market ahead of the midterm elections. Investors typically reduce their exposure to financial markets as elections approach, leading to reduced liquidity and downward pressure on prices.
In the 2014, 2018, and 2022 midterm election years, Bitcoin prices fell more than 60% before rebounding more than 50% within 12 months. While these movements appear to be very significant when viewed individually, it is important to note that these election years often coincide with bearish periods in four-year cycles.
Source: CryptoQuant
In its 2026 Bitcoin price performance outlook, XWIN Research painted three scenarios for this premium cryptocurrency. The first scenario is bearish and features a short-term rally expected in April and May, triggered by expectations surrounding the CLARITY Act.
In the second scenario, XWIN Research expects post-election transparency to improve sentiment as capital flows into BTC exchange-traded funds and public market participation resumes. In this case of “recovery from neutrality,” the analyst firm speculated that Bitcoin price could rise to the $75,000 to $95,000 range and gradually reach new highs.
In the third and final scenario, regulatory clarity and favorable election results drive large flows into the market. As market participation increases, the flagship cryptocurrency could return to the $90,000 to $120,000 range.
XWIN Research concludes:
In conclusion, the medium year is defined not only by falling prices, but also by a decline in liquidity and participation. If this pattern holds true, there is a high possibility that in 2026, the economy will slump before the election and recover after the election.
Bitcoin price overview
As of this writing, the price of BTC is around $70,400, with no significant changes in the past 24 hours.
The price of BTC on the daily timeframe | Source: BTCUSDT chart on TradingView
Featured images from DALL-E, charts from TradingView
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