Thomas predicts that Bitcoin could reach $15,000 to $20,000 by summer due to the recent decline in the US dollar index and historic correlation with BTC.
Bitcoin surged nearly 10% in May following a fall in the US dollar index, potentially indicating a strong gathering of Bitcoin and risky assets.
In a recent post on the X Platform, economic expert Tomas highlights important market signals that can make Bitcoin and other risky assets much higher this summer.
Experts say the sharp decline in the US dollar index seen in the first quarter has led to strong gatherings where assets such as Bitcoin have historically been delayed, usually three months.
He predicts that if this pattern is maintained, Bitcoin could reach the $150,000-$200,000 range in the coming months.
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Down Dollar Index Weakness: Correlation with BTC is explained
The US Dollar Index was analyzed
Earlier this year, the US Dollar Index was $108.512. In the first quarter of this year, the index slipped over 3.93%. The previous month saw a decrease of more than 4.36%. The index is currently at $100.424.
This indicates that the US dollar has weakened significantly over the last few months, especially in the first quarter of 2025.
Thomas historically states that weak dollars usually result in higher prices of risky assets such as Bitcoin and stocks, but there are delays (often three months).
On May 8, the Bitcoin market once again broke the key $100,000 mark with a 6.46% one-day surge.
Bitcoin price analysis: In short
Earlier this month, the BTC price was $94,147.61. So far, the BTC market has skyrocketed nearly 10.2%. Earlier this month, the market witnessed serious volatility (an increase of about 2.84% between May 1 and 2 and a 2.68% decrease between May 3 and 4), which has increased by at least 10.23% since May 5.
In the last seven days alone, we have witnessed an impressive 7.8% rise in Bitcoin prices.
Bitcoin price prediction: What the economist says
Thomas said the recent rise of Bitcoin could be an early indication that the index correlation pattern of the BTC dollar will be regenerated.
🤔 All you have to do is look at the dollar – is it really this easy?
All tariffs/growth slowdown concerns are ongoing, but it is easy to forget that the dollar has weakened significantly.
History strongly suggests that this is bullish for risk assets.
We are on pic.twitter.com/btdkaao3np
– Tomas (@tomasonmarkets) May 9, 2025
Experts predict that BTC prices could range from $150,000 to $200,000 by this summer if the usual inverse relationship between Bitcoin and the US Dollar Index is maintained.
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Correlation between US Dollar Index and US Stocks and Gold: What You Need to Know
Tomas points out that although the links are less accurate than Bitcoin, the same pattern could also boost the US inventory index.
In the first quarter of 2025, the S&P 500 index registered a marked decline of 4.96%. The market recorded a slight decline of 0.54% last month. Since its launch this month, it has experienced a slight surge of 0.96%.
Similarly, in April, the Nasdaq 100 index reported an increase of 1.92%. So far, the index has increased by 0.95% to $20,062.45.
Experts, on the other hand, emphasize that gold often moves in sync with the dollar rather than in the opposite direction.
2025 has been a great year for Gold. In the first quarter of 2025, gold prices experienced enviable growth of over 19.16%. The previous month, prices reported an increase of at least 5.25%. So far, the market has shown minimal growth of 1.25%.
Experts warn that gold is likely to be rising again as the dollar has already weakened, and could fall if the dollar strengthens again.
FAQ
Historically, Bitcoin prices will be higher in about three months as investors are looking for alternative assets.
When the dollar is weak, stocks tend to unlock stocks, but gold often moves in sync with the dollar, so its profits may already be priced.