Cryptocurrency analyst Christian Cifoy says: Bitcoin price fluctuation 2022 We are repeating the cycle pattern, but only in the opposite direction. At that time, America Federal Reserve System (FED) The rate hike caused a staggering 63% drop in BTC price. Now, as the Fed prepares to end quantitative tightening (QT), Tifoy believes the same macro settings could push prices in the opposite direction, marking the beginning of Bitcoin’s next big rally.
Bitcoin price reverses 2022 cycle pattern
Chiffoi explained On November 2nd, X social media reported that Bitcoin’s movements seem to be reproducing 2022. macroeconomic environment vice versa. He pointed out that back in March 2022, when the Fed first announced aggressive interest rate hikes, Bitcoin prices were hovering around $46,000. As the US central bank implemented its first two interest rate hikes of 50 basis points and 75 basis points by June of the same year; BTC collapse It rises to $17,000, marking the technical bottom of that cycle.
The market had already absorbed the shock as the Fed continued to raise rates from a total of 175 bps to 550 bps. Chifoi revealed that Bitcoin has entered the world. accumulation phase The rally has begun despite other market experts labeling the central bank’s actions “irresponsible” and slow.
Fast forward to the present day, and Tifoy believes that cycle is reversing. Recently with the FED Announcement of end of quantitative tightening He predicts that the next three-month window could trigger a strong bullish rally by December. push bitcoin to the top Rather than the bottom.
He cited late December to January 20, 2026 as a key period to watch, suggesting that the crypto market could spike before entering a cooling phase as liquidity returns to full capacity.
Spikes in liquidity and repo signals support the theory
Supporting his analysis, Chifoi referred to In a post by another analyst known as ‘ChurchOfTheCycle’, he shared an informative FRED chart showing the price spike. Overnight repurchase agreement—Treasury securities temporarily purchased by the Fed in open market operations.
This graph from 2000 to 2025 highlights a sudden and significant spike in repurchase transactions, suggesting a potential injection of liquidity into the financial system. Analysts say this surge alone market crashHistorically, such rallies have typically provided a short-term boost for stocks and cryptocurrencies.
He further pointed out that the Fed’s recent actions indicate stress and crisis in the financial system. Early stages of liquidity supportwhich could cause speculative assets to rise.
Based on this, analysts predict that the market may still fall. enter the parabolic phase He will last from Q4 2025 to Q1 2026 before facing a major crash in 2026, roughly six to 12 months after taking office on November 2nd. As a precaution, it warns traders to monitor credit spreads, repo levels and VIX correlations for early signs of liquidity stress.
Featured image created by Dall.E, chart on Tradingview.com
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