Bitcoin is up 1.9% over the past week and has been steadily rising since December 1st. It is trading near $93,300 after being flat for 24 hours, but the chart suggests a breakout and a 15%+ rally could follow.
Buyers have retreated, but not those who want to keep Bitcoin prices rising.
Buyers step in as Bitcoin approaches a breakout
Bitcoin has been declining since mid-November, and downward pressure is increasing. However, the price has been rising since December 1st and is now entering a potential breakout structure. The same is also confirmed by the ongoing inverted head-and-shoulders pattern on the 12-hour chart. This pattern typically appears near market bottoms and supports the idea of a recovery.
However, a 12-hour close above the neckline would be necessary for hopes of a breakout to increase.
BTC Attempting to Break Pattern: TradingView
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The strongest confirmation comes from spot flows. Changes in the exchange’s net position track whether coins are moved to the exchange for sale or held from the exchange. On November 27th, the exchange saw net inflows of 3,947 BTC, indicating selling pressure. By December 3rd, the indicator flipped to -18,721 BTC, implying a large outflow.
Purchase resumed: TradingView
The shift of over 22,000 BTC in favor of buyers indicates a sharp return in demand during this rally.
This improvement sets up the opening chapter, but the next part of the story explains why Larry still feels unstable.
Buyer composition reveals hidden weaknesses
The supply of short-term holders increased from 2,622,228 BTC on November 30 to 2,663,533 BTC as of December 3. Short-term holders are wallets that only hold coins for a few weeks. They buy quickly, but they sell quickly.
Their increase in supply (up almost 1.6%) often appears bullish on the surface, but it means that upside expectations are being carried by the most reactive group in the market. If Bitcoin price stalls, they are usually the first to book profits.
Enter the speculative trader: TradingView
Long-term holders, the group that supports strong breakouts, are not participating. Their net position change, as measured by the HODLer Net Position Change Index, has been negative for 14 consecutive days. The latest reading is -168,611 BTC.
Long-term BTC holders: TradingView
Until long-term holders turn into net longs, breakouts remain vulnerable to rapid reversals caused by speculative money.
This imbalance explains why Bitcoin price is moving towards a pattern break but still lacks the depth needed for a solid rally.
Bitcoin Price Levels That Can Confirm or Ruin a Move
Bitcoin price is sitting just below the neckline at $93,200. A 12-hour close above this level confirms the inverted head-and-shoulders pattern and unlocks the next checkpoints at $96,600, $99,800, and $104,000.
If buyers break out of these levels with real strength, a full extension of the pattern would reach near $108,300, which would represent the potential 15% move mentioned earlier.
Weakness will be signaled if Bitcoin falls below $90,400, the level at which buyers intervened during the recent sell-off. Losing that zone would necessitate a more severe test around $84,300 and invalidate the entire structure below $80,500.
Bitcoin Price Analysis: TradingView
For now, Bitcoin is attempting to break the pattern due to improved spot flows, increased speculative demand, and cautious long-term holders. There is room for more than 15% expansion on the chart, but a confident clearing of $93,200 will determine whether the move actually begins.
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