According to Glasnode’s July 29th, Bitcoin (BTC) is in boxes ranging from $105,000 to $125,000, but the breakout could drive prices to $141,000. Report.
The Short-Term Holder (STH) cost base is a key pivot between bullish and bearish local governments, located close to $105,400. This metric is key to defining the subsequent movement of BTC.
Prices repeatedly fill the resistance around the STH +1 band, and are labeled as “heated” area at nearly $125,100. A critical closure beyond that level shifts the focus to a STH +2 band that is close to $141,600.
Survive the weekend stress test
The report also highlighted that the weekend stress test passed. Network liquidity absorbed one of the biggest distribution events of the early investor cycle through Galaxy Digital, moving around approximately $9.6 billion worth of Bitcoin in the market and OTC venues.
Spot prices fell to $115,000 and then stabilized nearly $118,000, indicating market depth even in thin weekend hours.
The report estimates that the realization cap, liquidity dragged by dollars embedded in the chain, is more than $1 trillion, a scale that helps explain rapid stabilization.
Furthermore, flow metrics have skyrocketed around events. Net realised profit/loss reached a record $3.7 billion, while realised profit exceeded the loss at a multiple of 571 times. These levels are seen in just 1.5% days.
The report warned that while taking on extreme benefits often precedes local fatigue, it is not always at the top immediately, as previous peaks are delayed.
Turnover capital
The holder is still positively rotated. Long-term holder nets surged to their record high of $2.5 billion, the largest single sell-side print on record, as long-term holders (LTH) were distributed in strength.
The LTH/STH supply ratio shrinks 11% over 30 days, reflecting distributed waves near all heights of this cycle.
Nevertheless, over 97% of the supply remains profitable, with unrealized total profits reaching $1.4 trillion, and unrealized profits exceed the market capitalization share that represents euphoria, risk, tail of demand and blends of demand.
LTHS still holds 53% of the network’s wealth, leaving behind an additional supply that can be unlocked at a higher price.
Cost – The distribution of basis shows that a large number of nodes can be between $117k and $122k and a bass volume of “air gap” between $115k and $110k, with the market potentially re-registering its weakness.
Within the STH subcohort, 24-hour to 3 months of ribbons range from 110k to $117,000, enhancing the area as initial support.
The range will be held between $105,000 and $125,000 until the buyer is convicted and clears $125K.