The widely shared cycle model has resumed debate on whether Bitcoin’s recent rallies have already reached its peak.
According to a post on social platforms, the chart lined up past market cycles and points to the top possible on December 22, 2025, but this week’s price action of nearly $117,000 lives on both cautious and bullish cases.
The cycle model refers to the peak in December
Based on the report, the chart tracks previous peaks that have been more than 30 months since the previous market decline, extending that pattern to a 37-month span from the bottom of November 2022.
This projection places the top modeled on December 22, 2025, giving a cycle price target of nearly $200,000 on the same curve.
These time-based markers are attracting attention because they fit a clear pattern. The previous cycles have been longer than previous cycles.
Veteran traders issue risk scenarios
According to public comments, veteran trader Peter Brandt is heavier in the minus-side scenario. He gave Bitcoin a 30% chance of being already at the top of this cycle, suggesting that by November 2026, a pullback to around $60,000-70,000 could come before a major gathering from the way towards $500,000.
I think there’s a 30% chance that BTC has made its top spot in this bull market cycle. The next stop will return from $60k to $70k by November 2026, with the next bull propelled to $500k https://t.co/xpujqcjp9e
-Peter Brandt (@PeterlBrandt) August 15th, 2025
Brandt frames his views as probability rather than solid predictions, and such numerical thinking is intended to help traders weigh risks rather than declare certainty.
At the time of reporting, Bitcoin had traded around $117,790, a 0.90% drop in the last 24 hours. Prices fell 0.18% over the past seven days and 0.38% last month.
Beyond the long frame, BTC has risen 18% over the past six months, up 24% per year. These numbers help explain why there are differences of opinion. Some people see markets running much faster, while others point to stable profits that still leave more room for them.
Next signal
The clearest way to test these scenarios based on market practices is through flow and positioning. Track ETFs and institutional inflows, exchange balances, and derivative data.
A stable flow of institutional purchases is less likely to cause long, deep retraces. Conversely, sustained outflows, rising exchange inventory, or liquidation of heavy derivatives will bolster the case of larger pullbacks into the $60,000-$70,000 zone.
Has Bitcoin already reached its peak?
BRANDT Estimates – 30% chance BTC is already at its peak, sliding to $60,000-$70,000 by November 2026 before pushing towards $500,000 later.
Unsplash featured images, TradingView charts
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