Spot Bitcoin (BTC) exchange-traded fund (ETF) flows traded in the U.S. have turned net positive after about a week of redemptions.
The US Spot Bitcoin ETF recorded net inflows of $240 million on Nov. 6, after six consecutive sessions in which more than $660 million exited the product, according to data from Pharcyde Investors.
BlackRock’s IBIT topped the list with $112.4 million, followed by Fidelity’s FBTC with $61.6 million and Arc21Shares’ ARKB with $60.4 million.
This move means that the biggest marginal buyers in the Bitcoin market have stopped selling and started buying again.
One green day doesn’t erase a week of red, but the reversal is important because in a market where liquidity rather than sentiment determines price movement, ETF flows are no longer just a demand signal. Funds have become a liquidity infrastructure.
Since its inception, U.S. spot ETFs have generated more than $60.5 billion in net inflows and manage approximately $135 billion in assets under management. This equates to approximately 6.7% of all Bitcoin in existence held in products that serve the demand for regulated access.
When these products switch from net redemption to net creation, not only does the headline change, but the mechanical pressure on the order book changes.
arithmetic of absorption
After the halving, miners will issue approximately 450 BTC every day. The current price is almost $102,555.06, which means more than $46 million in new supply enters the market every day.
The $240 million inflows in one day absorb more than five days of global issuance through U.S. ETFs alone. This is not metaphorical buying pressure, but rather programmatic demand run through authorized participants who need to purchase BTC to create new shares.
When ETF flows become negative, the process is reversed. Authorized participants redeem shares and sell Bitcoin back to the market or internal inventory, creating continuous and predictable selling pressure on margin.
When the flow turns positive, the same participants buy in large quantities to meet their creative needs.
Because ETFs currently control a mid-single-digit percentage of total supply and serve as the primary vehicle for institutional allocation, ETF net flows are the most accurate measure of Bitcoin’s large-scale, traceable marginal liquidity.
The market structure has changed. BTC liquidity no longer resides primarily in the Binance spot market or perpetual futures market, but also in what IBIT, FBTC, and their peers are doing with daily creation and redemption.
One of two conditions is met
A recent Glassnode analysis identified two requirements for Bitcoin bulls to regain structural control. That’s consistent positive ETF flows and a short-term holder cost basis recovery of about $112,500 as support.
The November 6th influx satisfies the first condition in miniature. This shows that real demand for TradFi still exists at current prices and is willing to buy the push through ETFs rather than abandoning the product after $1.9 billion in outflows.
One printing does not rewrite the structure. Over the past week, the ETF has remained net negative.
However, the moment these daily bars flip from red to green and stay there, the market turns away from the major institutional sellers and towards buyers who have the ability to outbid both new issuance and a portion of long-term holders’ distributions.
At that point, the combination of “ETF flows and $112,500 recovery” becomes a reliable setup rather than wishful thinking.
Four channels to a tight market
Liquidity impacts act through multiple channels simultaneously.
First, the ETF’s positive flows immediately reduce its tradable float as coins are pulled from the liquid spot venue into the ETF’s vault and remain relatively stable. Thinner spot float combined with steady or increasing demand creates a more sensitive order book.
Once buyers participate, transactions occur faster and in smaller amounts.
Second, when a U.S. ETF enters net long mode, authorized participants wipe out liquidity across major exchanges to fill the placing orders. It tightens the spread at the top of the book, but it wears out when you ask for a rest.
In a market already dealing with reduced issuance and HODL concentration post-halving, ETF bid returns have become the kind of structural flow that drives upside breaks rather than all the upside being absorbed by sellers.
Third, the $135 billion ETF complex adds “paper” liquidity in the form of deeply regulated trading in the ETF shares themselves. This makes it easier for pension funds, registered investment advisor platforms, and corporations to make allocations and rebalances without impacting the spot market.
As these players turn into buyers, Bitcoin’s effective demand base expands, making it easier for volatility from purely crypto-native leverage to be absorbed by diversified flows.
Fourth, there is the signal value. After a week in which outflows tracked broader risk-off positioning and long-term holders quietly dispersed to weakness, the decisive day of inflows from the most important branded funds represents a significant shift in sentiment.
This influx shows that large allocators remain comfortable adding Bitcoin exposure via ETFs at near six-digit prices, supporting the thesis that sub-$100,000 wicks are being treated as an opportunity rather than a regime change.
Ending a six-day $660 million outflow streak with a new $240 million piece does not end Bitcoin’s correction or guarantee another rally. But it does something more important to market structure. It is about removing mechanical selling pressure from the single largest category of marginal buying.
For now, the pressure was reversed. Whether it remains inverted will determine whether Bitcoin’s liquidity environment supports another test of consolidation or support.
