The major cryptocurrencies experienced two-way price action early on Friday. This is because the dollar continued to bid on major Fiat currencies after President Donald Trump announced new tariffs.
Bitcoin
The early uncertainty could have stemmed from Trump’s widespread tariffs and the continued rise in the dollar index (DXY) since late May. Tracking the value of greenbacks against major Fiat currencies, DXY has earned more than 3% in four weeks, suggesting potential monetary tightening, suggesting traders often reduce exposure to risky assets.
Inflation fear lifts DXY
Signs of tariff-driven inflation in the US have driven the dollar high, according to Robin Brooks, a senior fellow at the Brookings facility.
“The reason people give people the reason the dollar has dropped this year is all kinds of kinds. All of that is a simple macro story. Tariffs are supposed to raise inflation.
Late Thursday, Trump announced sweeping tariffs on a global scale. The new orders retained “universal” tariffs on goods coming to the US at a level announced on April 2nd. However, that rate applies only to countries where the US has a trade surplus. Countries that export further to the US face 15% tariff floors. Meanwhile, some Southeast Asian countries are suffering from greater tariffs.
These additional tariffs could exacerbate the impact of tax inflation, announced earlier this year. Data released Thursday showed the impact of the first tariffs that sneaked into Core PCE, the Fed’s priority inflation measure, in June
The Personal Consumption Expense Price Index rose 2.6% year-on-year in June, up from 2.4% in May. The core figures excluding unstable food and energy prices rose 2.8% a year, matching the pace in May, and are at its highest since February.
With updates inflation, it could be difficult for the Fed to cut quickly as President Trump hopes. Earlier this week, the central bank has left a rate that has been changed to 4.25%, crushing hopes for an updated rate cut from September.
“The market has returned its forecast for interest rate cuts in September. According to the CMEFedWatch tool, the chances of a cut next month have dropped to just 41% – Matt Mena declared that the Fed decision, over 75%, will remain stable this week, chair Powell’s call for “more confidence” for “more confidence” for Powell’s “more confidence.”
Mena added that the focus will be on the US non-farm salary report on Friday.
Yen slides before pay
Japanese yen depreciated over $150.50 on the morning of Tokyo, reaching its lowest level in four months.
The decline follows comments by Gov. Boji Kazuoueda on Thursday. This indicated that Japan’s central banks were cautious about implementing additional fees early.
Both Yen and BTC could experience an increase in volatility following the release of payroll counts on Friday.
“The data is likely to determine if Powell has the green light to act, or if the Fed will remain on the bystander,” Mena said. “In the case of crypto, a gentle financial position is a major tailwind. Bitcoin has historically tracked global liquidity with short delays. If labor data confirms the cooling economy and the Fed’s pivot, the BTC can continue the grind at $150,000 and $200K playing this cycle.”
