Bitcoin (BTC) has racked up five consecutive months of negative returns, falling 45% from its all-time high of $126,000 in October 2025.
On March 6, 2026, Bitcoin is trading at around $68,277 after falling 4% in the past 24 hours. Lose $70,000 in emotional support.
Bitcoin’s bearish trend comes from the last quarter of 2025 (23% decline) and has become even more pronounced in the first two months of 2026 so far, with the digital asset recording another 20% decline.
This correction is considered “normal” as this is a normal pattern for cycles dominated by Bitcoin’s halving. The most recent halving occurred in April 2024, followed by an all-time high of $126,000 in 2025, which coincides with a typical bull phase the year after the event.
Bitcoin’s history teaches us that every rise is accompanied by a significant correction. In fact, the previous cycles after the halving recorded declines of 87% (2015), 84% (2018), and 77% (2022).
The relevant facts are that historically, Bitcoin price bottom comes about a year after hitting cycle high. Following this pattern, a likely bottom is set for the end of this year, followed by a period of leveling off, followed by a rally towards at least the previous high.
The 2026 scenario reflects this pattern of a post-peak ‘hangover’, exacerbated by deteriorating macroeconomic and geopolitical conditions.
However, various analyzes suggest a potential departure from the traditional four-year pattern. Fidelity Digital Assets suggests this time may be different. because he thinks so The typical cycles that investors are accustomed to may no longer apply in the current situation.
Macroeconomic and geopolitical factors complicate recovery
And speaking of the current situation, one cannot help but mention that there is a war going on in the Middle East involving the United States, Israel, and Iran.
In addition to this, the deterioration of the US labor market, with job losses and the unemployment rate reaching 4.4% in February, caused the price of Bitcoin to fall.
Although a crisis is often posed as a scenario for using Bitcoin as a safe-haven asset, the price shows that the crisis is not currently being perceived as such in the face of geopolitical uncertainty, which could lead to a wider decline (or at least a slower rise).
However, there are conflicting positions in the debate regarding the future of Bitcoin’s price.
The debate between caution and Bitcoin price recovery
MEXC COO Vugar Usi Zade claims that “Bitcoin continues to serve as a structural anchor for the entire digital asset market.” Define market sentiment, liquidity cycles, institutional confidence, As reported by CriptoNoticias.
Under this framework, assets “could approach the $150,000 range towards the end of 2026,” he suggested. According to MEXC executives, “heading toward the $200,000 level in early 2027 is a realistic scenario,” given sustained institutional inflows, the adoption of Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the U.S., and favorable global liquidity conditions.
On the contrary, Biguto’s Argentina national team director Carolina Gama urges caution. “The combination of macroeconomic uncertainty and contraction in derivatives markets suggests that Bitcoin may remain sensitive to new geopolitical developments in the short term,” he explains.
He added: “High-volatility environments usually create selective opportunities, so you need to be disciplined, read scenarios carefully and use appropriate risk management.”
From technical analysis, trader Thomas Wendel Interpret Bitcoin’s current movement as a sign of the cycle’s definitive exhaustion. “We are in a major distribution phase,” he said, adding that “the slow rebound towards $71,000 to $75,000 is not strength, but rather a liquidity trap designed to absorb the last optimists before a real crash.”
According to analysts, following historical post-halving patterns, “the structure is bearish and markets always break out of the euphoria before true capitulation.”
after that…. Who is right? Has the price of Bitcoin already bottomed out or could it still fall?Of course, it is impossible to predict that with complete certainty. As we have seen, expert opinions are diverse and contradictory.
The direction of prices will be determined by which narrative prevails between those who sell in the face of global instability and those who buy seeking protection from the traditional financial system. This duality between panic and technical protection suggests the ultimate price direction It depends on which of these two forces prevails in general market sentiment..