Bitcoin has not reached new ATH due to widespread coin movement and a surge in recycled supplies. The rally has been locked up in the majority of Bitcoin’s UTXO sets, instead of distributing liquidity.
Between February 28 and May 28, the share of the UTXO set rose 3.79 percentage points in the long term (output over six months) to 73.38%. This dormant increase followed the fastest price rise since the last quarter of 2024. It was shown that much of the demand behind the rally was absorbed without causing large-scale profit realizations.
The most notable structural shift occurred in the 1-3-month cohort, with a 4.68 percentage points reduction. These UTXOs, mainly due to accumulation from February to early March, did not recycle to young bands through exchange transfers. Instead, they matured into a three- to six-month bracket, earning 1.97% points, making them the fastest slice of the set.
The adjacent 6-12-month and 12-18-month groups were also expanded, adding 1.84 and 1.24 percent points, respectively. These increases date back to coins accumulated in late 2024, and are now aging comfortably to deeper dormant. The structural meaning is clear. There were few buyers in the previous two quarters, and many are now long-term participants by definition on the chain.
Short-term churn remained low throughout. Utxos hovered nearly 1% of less than a day. This is at a level that remains largely unchanged, even if Bitcoin adds more than $23,000. The output rose slightly over the same week and week to month, earning a total of 0.90% points. However, these increases are modest and point to the slightest growth of new buyers rather than speculative turnover.
The cohort for the 2021-2023 cycle showed more mixed behavior. The UTXOS was signed for 1.12% points between 2 and 7 years, with net flow from 2 to 3, 5 and 7 years buckets to 7 years buckets. These holders showed signs of selective spending, possibly to earn profits near the ATH. However, adjustments were limited and the impact on aggregate dormancy was minimal.
In particular, the oldest UTXOS, over seven years of UTXOS, has increased its share by 0.42 percentage points. These productions were undistributed even before the 2017 Bull Run, growing on absolute and relative terms, indicating long-term convictions of early holders.
A deeper look at the correlation scores reinforces this interpretation. The 6-12-month and 7-10-year bands showed strong positive correlations with price (ρ=0.78 and ρ=0.87, respectively). These bands are rising alongside Bitcoin, reflecting dormant growth as prices rise. Meanwhile, the 2-3-5-7-year bands moved in reverse to price (ρ = -0.90 and ρ = -0.86), confirming that older holders in these cohorts were net distributors.
Price rally was filled with structural aging across the UTXO set, rather than spinning into a young bucket. This suggests a market that absorbed the inflow without drawing out large amounts of existing supplies. Spot buyers could have been forced to bid on limited availability, squeeze floats and create a demand-driven momentum feedback loop.
Net aging also serves as a cushion against volatility. With over 73% of Bitcoin’s UTXO sets getting older for more than six months, most supply is slowly becoming functionally illiquid. This reduces the drawback pressure during drawdown, contributing to a lower exchange stock level, and usually creates conditions that support a continuous price increase.
One warning is selective expenditures seen in some medium-term cohorts. Although not offensive, the fact that 2021-2022 buyers benefited suggests that distributions could become more noticeable when prices stall. However, these sales are unlikely to overwhelm spot demand unless short-term UTXOS starts to expand meaningfully.
Data supports a market structure that is leaning towards accumulation and long-term positioning. As Utxos ages further, the burden of price discovery continues to decline to marginal inflows rather than recycled coins. This will count all influxes and lean the balance of power to the holders who are not rushing to spend.
Post Bitcoin hit new ATHs without a fresh supply, forcing buyers to chase dormant coins.
