On-chain data shows that the “ancient supply” of Bitcoin (BTC) is increasing faster than the daily issuance of new BTCs. June 18th Research By Fidelity Digital Assets.
The report treats ancient supply as Bitcoin that has not been moved for at least 10 years, counting an average of 566 BTCs in a cohort of more than 10 years each day since April 2024, with 450 BTC miners currently being added to the circulation daily.
Milestone arrived less than a year later with half the cut-cut issue of half the 2024 block reward, redefineing the supply dynamics of the network.
The ancient supply accounts for more than 17% of all mined Bitcoin, which is equivalent to about $107,000, about $360 billion, at about $107,000 per coin when the metric was first calculated in early 2019.
Nakamoto AT owns 33% of this stash, but another unknown part can be irreparably lost. However, analysts note that they can make the coins more proactive.
Belief and volatility
Daily declines in buckets for 10 years occur less than 3% of the time, but when the threshold drops to five-year holders, the stock rises to 13%.
The report highlighted that US elections since 2024 have increased churn among the most immobilized wallets. Since November, ancient supply has shrunk at 10% of trading days, quadrupleting the historic average.
Moves to five to ten year holders look more sensitive. Coin, at least 5 years old, left the bucket on 39% of the day in the same span, tripling the standard.
The report argues that surges link to first quarter horizontal prices and that an increase in distribution from older cohorts could mute short-term upside downs even while net rarity is rising.
HODL rate is positive
Fidelity also evaluated the “HODL rate,” defined as ancient supply inflows minus new issuances.
The scale reversed positive in April 2024, averageing 116 bitcoins per day, reinforcing the idea that holders’ hardening cores are absorbing circulation faster than miners replace it.
As the Bitcoin issuance schedule is programmed to decrease with Halving, the company predicts that by that year it will reach 20% of all Bitcoin by that year and 25% by 2034.
The Corporation may accelerate the trend. 27 listed companies currently collectively own more than 800,000 BTC.
Fidelity’s model predicted that by 2035, if companies over 1,000 BTC continue to hold coins on their balance sheets, ancient supply would exceed 30% of the float.
Despite the suggestion of rarity, we cannot guarantee a higher price without the right level of demand to absorb it.
However, the long-term, controlled, durable rise of coins tightens floats available to traders, increasingly linking price discoveries to marginal flows.
Fidelity concluded that Bitcoin is currently separate from resilient products.